Published on Apr 17, 2023

Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 17-04-2023

EUR/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for EUR/USD

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
01:00	(Cyprus) Orthodox Easter Monday	None	EUR
01:00	(Greece) Orthodox Easter Monday	None	EUR
01:00	(Montenegro) Orthodox Easter Monday	None	EUR
01:01	(Ireland) Construction PMI	Low	EUR
02:30	(China) PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement	Low	CNY
08:30	(Euro Area) ECB McCaul Speech	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) CPI	High	EUR
09:00	(Switzerland) Myfxbook USDCHF Sentiment	Medium	CHF
09:00	(Australia) Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment	Medium	AUD
09:00	(Japan) Myfxbook USDJPY Sentiment	Medium	JPY
09:00	(European Union) Myfxbook EURUSD Sentiment	Medium	EUR
09:00	(United Kingdom) Myfxbook GBPUSD Sentiment	Medium	GBP
09:00	(Canada) Myfxbook USDCAD Sentiment	Medium	CAD
09:00	(New Zealand) Myfxbook NZDUSD Sentiment	Medium	NZD
10:00	(China) FDI (YTD) YoY	Medium	CNY
10:00	(Euro Area) ECB Tuominen Speech	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 12-Month Bubill Auction	Low	EUR
10:45	(European Union) EU Bond Auction	Low	EUR
10:45	(European Union) 10-Year Bond Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Slovakia) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
13:30	(Canada) Wholesale Sales MoM	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Foreign Securities Purchases	Low	CAD
13:30	(United States) NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	Medium	USD
14:00	(Belgium) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 3-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 12-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 6-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(United Kingdom) BoE Cunliffe Speech	Low	GBP
15:00	(United States) NAHB Housing Market Index	Medium	USD
16:00	(Euro Area) ECB President Lagarde Speech	Medium	EUR
16:30	(United States) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
21:00	(United States) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	USD
21:00	(United States) Net Long-term TIC Flows	Medium	USD
21:00	(United States) Overall Net Capital Flows	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - EUR/USD is currently consolidating its losses around 1.0980 as traders search for further signals to continue the previous day's decline in the midst of a slow Monday morning in Europe. Despite this, the Euro pair is enjoying the US Dollar's inability to maintain its corrective rebound from a one-year low, as concerns about the US economic recovery mount due to the stalemate over the government's debt ceiling extension. Furthermore, the Euro's strengthening rebound may be attributed to the recent hawkish remarks made by officials from the European Central Bank (ECB).

As the Democrats and Republicans in the United States remain divided on the issue of raising the debt ceiling, which currently sits at a record high, ECB President Christine Lagarde expressed "great confidence" that the US will not default on its debt. This sentiment could further bolster the Euro pair's resurgence.

Buy Scenario: - During Monday's Asian session, EUR/USD continued to face downward pressure, hovering around 1.0980 as bears approached a previous resistance level from two weeks ago. The pair's decline below a horizontal support area that included several levels marked since early February, as well as a one-week-old ascending trend line, added strength to the downside bias. Bearish MACD signals and the U-turn from 1.1075 also kept Euro sellers hopeful of testing the horizontal support area at 1.0970.

However, before testing the monthly low of 1.0788, a support line sloping upward from mid-March and the 100-SMA at 1.0910 and 1.0895, respectively, could challenge the EUR/USD bears. Additionally, the late March high of around 1.0930 also acts as a short-term key support level for EUR/USD sellers to watch, till we do not advise to buy EUR/USD currency pair.

Sell Scenario: - Meanwhile, the Euro pair's recovery remains uncertain below the aforementioned short-term support-turned-resistance line and a multi-day-old horizontal area, located close to 1.1030-40 at the time of writing. Even if EUR/USD buyers manage to cross the 1.1040 hurdle, they will face a tough challenge in the form of the latest peak at 1.1075 before they can attempt to break the late March 2022 high of nearly 1.1185. Till then we do not advise selling EUR/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -