Published on May 16, 2023

Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 16-05-2023

EUR/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for EUR/USD

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
01:30	(Australia) Westpac Consumer Confidence Index	High	AUD
01:30	(Australia) Westpac Consumer Confidence Change	High	AUD
02:30	(Australia) RBA Meeting Minutes	High	AUD
03:00	(China) Unemployment Rate	High	CNY
03:00	(China) Retail Sales YoY	High	CNY
03:00	(China) Industrial Production YoY	High	CNY
03:00	(China) Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY	Medium	CNY
06:00	(Finland) GDP YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) HMRC Payrolls Change	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr)	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr)	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Unemployment Rate	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Claimant Count Change	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Employment Change	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Labour Productivity QoQ	Low	GBP
08:00	(China) FDI (YTD) YoY	Medium	CNY
08:00	(Slovakia) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Low	EUR
08:30	(Netherlands) Household Consumption YoY	Low	EUR
08:30	(Netherlands) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Medium	EUR
08:30	(Netherlands) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
08:30	(Netherlands) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
09:00	(European Union) ECOFIN Meeting	Medium	EUR
09:00	(France) IEA Oil Market Report	Medium	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) CPI	High	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 3-Month Letras Auction	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Employment Change QoQ	High	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Employment Change YoY	High	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Balance of Trade	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) ZEW Economic Sentiment Index	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Germany) ZEW Current Conditions	Low	EUR
10:00	(Germany) ZEW Economic Sentiment Index	High	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
13:15	(United States) Fed Mester Speech	Medium	USD
13:30	(Canada) Manufacturing Sales MoM	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Core Inflation Rate MoM	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Inflation Rate YoY	High	CAD
13:30	(Canada) CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY	High	CAD
13:30	(Canada) CPI Median YoY	High	CAD
13:30	(United States) Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Retail Sales YoY	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Retail Sales MoM	High	USD
13:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
13:55	(United States) Fed Bostic Speech	Medium	USD
14:15	(United States) Manufacturing Production MoM	Low	USD
14:15	(United States) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	USD
14:15	(United States) Industrial Production YoY	Medium	USD
14:15	(United States) Manufacturing Production YoY	Low	USD
14:15	(United States) Capacity Utilization	Low	USD
14:45	(Euro Area) ECB Tuominen Speech	Low	EUR
15:00	(United States) Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Business Inventories MoM	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) NAHB Housing Market Index	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Fed Barr Testimony	Medium	USD
15:00	(Euro Area) ECB President Lagarde Speech	Medium	EUR
16:00	(New Zealand) Global Dairy Trade Price Index	Low	NZD
16:30	(United States) 52-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:15	(United States) Fed Williams Speech	Medium	USD
20:15	(United States) Fed Logan Speech	Medium	USD
21:30	(United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - EUR/USD is experiencing slight gains around 1.0880 in the early hours of Tuesday as it defends against a recent dip, anticipating key catalysts from Europe and the United States. The currency pair is showing resilience within a bullish chart pattern known as a falling wedge, which has been in place for the past two weeks and has recently bounced off the lower trendline.

Yesterday, EUR/USD managed to recover from its lowest level in five weeks, marking its first daily gain in four sessions. This recovery confirms the presence of the falling wedge pattern and is supported by bullish signals from the MACD indicator. The oversold condition of the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) further favors the buyers.

Buy Scenario: - EUR/USD buyers are expected to maintain control, at least from a technical standpoint, as they approach the significant resistance zone around 1.0940. This resistance confluence is formed by the upper trendline of the falling wedge pattern and the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Additionally, the round figure of 1.0900 could also act as an immediate hurdle for Euro buyers.

In the event that EUR/USD surpasses the 1.0940 resistance, there is a possibility of a rally towards the March 2022 high near 1.1185. It's worth noting that during this upward move, the round figure of 1.1000 and the yearly high around 1.1090 might act as intermediate barriers, till we do not advise to buy EUR/USD currency pair.

Sell Scenario: - On the other hand, if the currency pair faces downside pressure, the lower trendline of the falling wedge, located near 1.0830, could provide support along with the near-oversold RSI (14). Subsequently, the focus will shift to the mid-March swing high at 1.0760, and a break below this level could strengthen the bearish momentum for EUR/USD. Till then we do not advise selling EUR/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -