Published on May 15, 2023

Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 15-05-2023

EUR/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for EUR/USD

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:50	(Japan) PPI YoY	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) PPI MoM	Low	JPY
01:00	(Euro Area) Eurogroup Meeting	Medium	EUR
01:01	(Ireland) Construction PMI	Low	EUR
02:30	(Australia) Building Permits MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Private House Approvals MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Building Permits YoY	Low	AUD
02:30	(China) PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement	Low	CNY
04:45	(Japan) 5-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
06:00	(Estonia) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) CPI	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Wholesale Prices MoM	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Wholesale Prices YoY	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Japan) Machine Tool Orders YoY	Low	JPY
07:30	(Switzerland) Producer & Import Prices YoY	Low	CHF
07:30	(Switzerland) Producer & Import Prices MoM	Low	CHF
08:00	(China) FDI (YTD) YoY	Medium	CNY
08:00	(Lithuania) Current Account	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Core Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) CPI	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:00	(Australia) Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment	Medium	AUD
09:00	(Switzerland) Myfxbook USDCHF Sentiment	Medium	CHF
09:00	(Japan) Myfxbook USDJPY Sentiment	Medium	JPY
09:00	(European Union) Myfxbook EURUSD Sentiment	Medium	EUR
09:00	(United Kingdom) Myfxbook GBPUSD Sentiment	Medium	GBP
09:00	(Canada) Myfxbook USDCAD Sentiment	Medium	CAD
09:00	(New Zealand) Myfxbook NZDUSD Sentiment	Medium	NZD
10:00	(Belgium) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 12-Month Bubill Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Spain) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Current Account	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
13:15	(Canada) Housing Starts	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Wholesale Sales MoM	Low	CAD
13:30	(United States) NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	Medium	USD
13:45	(United States) Fed Bostic Speech	Medium	USD
14:00	(Belgium) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 3-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 12-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 6-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:15	(United States) Fed Kashkari Speech	Medium	USD
15:00	(Canada) Financial System Survey	Medium	CAD
16:30	(United States) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:30	(United States) Fed Barkin Speech	Medium	USD
21:00	(United States) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	USD
21:00	(United States) Overall Net Capital Flows	Low	USD
21:00	(United States) Net Long-term TIC Flows	Medium	USD
22:00	(United States) Fed Cook Speech	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - The EUR/USD pair made an attempt to bounce back from 1.0850, but it faced difficulties in sustaining its recovery above 1.0863 during the Asian session. The primary currency pair is striving to extend its recovery, given that the US Dollar Index (DXY) has displayed indications of exhaustion in its upward momentum.

Positive market sentiment has provided some strength to assets perceived as risky. S&P500 futures have regained most of the losses recorded in the early Asian trading hours. Investors are currently disregarding the risks associated with the United States' debt-ceiling issues and taking advantage of increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will halt its tightening of monetary policies.

Buy Scenario: - On the Buying side of EUR/USD pair, immediate resistance for the EUR/USD pair is seen at the former support-turned-resistance line and the 50-DMA, located around 1.0865-75 at the time of writing.

Beyond that, the levels of 1.0950 and the psychological level of 1.1000 could attract bullish momentum before guiding towards an upward trendline resistance from February 2023, which is near 1.1110 currently.

Overall, the EUR/USD remains a target for bearish sentiment despite the recent lack of significant movement, till we do not advise to buy EUR/USD currency pair.

Sell Scenario: - The EUR/USD pair is currently holding at around 1.0850, as the bears take a pause after pushing the price to a monthly low earlier on Monday.

Despite this, sellers of the Euro pair remain optimistic as the quote continues to stay below the upward trendline support from late September 2022, as well as the 50-day moving average (DMA). The bearish signals from the MACD indicator further strengthen the downward bias.

However, the relative strength index (RSI) with a period of 14 is trading below the 50 level, indicating the possibility of bottom-picking. This could potentially support a rebound in the EUR/USD price from the support of the 100-DMA around 1.0800.

Additionally, an important short-term support area lies in the range of the highs marked in mid-March, roughly between 1.0760 and 1.0750.

If the EUR/USD price remains bearish and falls below 1.0750, there is a chance of a gradual decline towards the yearly low near 1.0480, followed by the support of the 200-DMA around 1.0455. Till then we do not advise selling EUR/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -