Published on Mar 15, 2023

Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 15-03-2023

EUR/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for EUR/USD

Economic Events: -

GMT		Event	Currency
07:00	-	(Germany) Wholesale Prices MoM	EUR
07:00	-	(Germany) Wholesale Prices YoY	EUR
07:45	-	(France) Inflation Rate MoM	EUR
07:45	-	(France) Inflation Rate YoY	EUR
09:00	-	(France) IEA Oil Market Report	EUR
10:00	-	(Euro Area) Industrial Production MoM	EUR
11:30	-	(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate	USD
12:30	-	(United States) NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	USD
12:30	-	(United States) PPI MoM	USD
12:30	-	(United States) Core PPI MoM	USD
12:30	-	(United States) Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM	USD
12:30	-	(United States) Retail Sales MoM	USD
12:30	-	(United States) Retail Sales YoY	USD
12:30	-	(United States) Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM	USD
14:00	-	(United States) NAHB Housing Market Index	USD
14:00	-	(United States) Business Inventories MoM	USD
14:30	-	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change	USD
14:30	-	(United States) EIA Gasoline Stocks Change	USD
20:30	-	(United States) Net Long-term TIC Flows	USD

Today's Scenario: - EUR/USD is currently holding onto modest gains, hovering near its one-month high, and is steadily approaching its multi-day peak. Despite the US Dollar and US Treasury bond yields being generally weaker, the Euro pair is finding it difficult to establish a clear direction. However, this is not deterring the bulls who remain optimistic as they await key economic data releases from both the Eurozone and the US.

To summarize, the EUR/USD pair is showing resilience as it clings to its recent gains. While the broader market conditions remain uncertain, traders remain hopeful and vigilant for upcoming data releases that could potentially shift market sentiment.

Buy Scenario: - After four days of consecutive gains, the EUR/USD bulls have established themselves above the 1.0700 level. At present, the pair is hovering near 1.0732, which is a support zone that has been tested multiple times and is marked by the 50-day moving average (DMA) on the daily time frame.

If the EUR/USD breaks through the 50-DMA, which also coincides with a 38.2% Fibonacci level, it would likely reinforce the pair's bullish momentum toward the next resistance zone starting from the 1.07942 level.

However, before reaching the ultimate target of 1.0800, the EUR/USD must surpass the 50% Fibonacci level located just below this round figure mark. Despite strong bullish momentum and a mildly positive United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on Tuesday, the 50-DMA has been capping gains for the past two days.

The EUR/USD continues to display bullish momentum as the market approaches the next Federal Reserve (Fed) FOMC meeting with cautious optimism. Investors are now pricing in a 25 basis points (bps) rate hike, down from the 50 basis points that were being priced in earlier due to concerns in the banking sector, still we do not advise to buy EUR/USD currency pair.

Sell Scenario: - The current market conditions are fragile, and this could lead to a resurgence of downside momentum. This is especially true considering the financial turbulence experienced earlier this week, which may trigger a renewed demand for the safe-haven US Dollar.

However, any potential downward pressure on prices is expected to be contained around the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.0660. This level also aligns with both the previous day's low and the 21-day moving average (DMA), which should provide additional support. Till then we do not advise selling EUR/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -