Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 14-04-2023

Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 14-04-2023

EUR/USD Analysis
EUR/USD
Economic Events and Scenario for EUR/USD
Economic Events: -
GMTEventImpactCurrency
01:00(Cyprus) Good FridayNoneEUR
01:00(Greece) Orthodox Good FridayNoneEUR
01:00(Montenegro) Good FridayNoneEUR
04:35(Japan) 3-Month Bill AuctionLowJPY
06:00(Finland) Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
06:00(Finland) Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
06:00(Finland) GDP YoYLowEUR
06:00(Finland) CPILowEUR
07:00(Germany) Wholesale Prices YoYMediumEUR
07:00(Germany) Wholesale Prices MoMMediumEUR
07:30(Switzerland) Producer & Import Prices MoMLowCHF
07:30(Switzerland) Producer & Import Prices YoYLowCHF
07:45(France) Inflation Rate YoYMediumEUR
07:45(France) Inflation Rate MoMMediumEUR
07:45(France) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
07:45(France) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(China) FDI (YTD) YoYMediumCNY
08:00(Slovakia) CPILowEUR
08:00(Slovakia) Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
08:00(Slovakia) Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(Slovakia) Core Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
08:00(Slovakia) Core Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(Spain) CPIHighEUR
08:00(Spain) Core Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(Spain) Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
08:00(Spain) Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(Spain) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(Spain) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
09:00(France) IEA Oil Market ReportMediumEUR
10:30(Belgium) Construction Output YoYLowEUR
11:00(Ireland) Balance of TradeLowEUR
13:30(Canada) Manufacturing Sales MoMLowCAD
13:30(Canada) New Motor Vehicle SalesLowCAD
13:30(United States) Import Prices YoYLowUSD
13:30(United States) Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoMHighUSD
13:30(United States) Export Prices YoYLowUSD
13:30(United States) Import Prices MoMMediumUSD
13:30(United States) Export Prices MoMMediumUSD
13:30(United States) Retail Sales MoMHighUSD
13:30(United States) Retail Sales YoYHighUSD
13:30(United States) Retail Sales Ex Autos MoMHighUSD
13:45(United States) Fed Waller SpeechMediumUSD
14:15(United States) Manufacturing Production MoMLowUSD
14:15(United States) Capacity UtilizationLowUSD
14:15(United States) Manufacturing Production YoYLowUSD
14:15(United States) Industrial Production YoYMediumUSD
14:15(United States) Industrial Production MoMMediumUSD
15:00(United States) Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoMLowUSD
15:00(United States) Business Inventories MoMMediumUSD
15:00(United States) Michigan Inflation ExpectationsLowUSD
15:00(United States) Michigan Consumer SentimentHighUSD
15:00(United States) Michigan Consumer ExpectationsLowUSD
15:00(United States) Michigan Current ConditionsLowUSD
15:00(United States) Michigan 5 Year Inflation ExpectationsLowUSD
16:30(United Kingdom) BoE Tenreyro SpeechMediumGBP
18:00(El Salvador) Inflation Rate MoMLowUSD
18:00(El Salvador) Inflation Rate YoYLowUSD
18:00(United States) Baker Hughes Oil Rig CountLowUSD
18:00(United States) Baker Hughes Total Rig CountLowUSD
19:15(Germany) Bundesbank Nagel SpeechLowEUR
Today's Scenario: - In the early European session, the EUR/USD pair is exhibiting a sideways movement around the 1.1070 level. It is expected to continue its upward trajectory towards the significant psychological resistance level of 1.1100, as the US Dollar Index (DXY) struggles to maintain its downward momentum. The DXY remained under pressure on Thursday due to the Producer Price Index (PPI) report indicating a higher-than-expected softening in the United States. This report further strengthened the belief that the Federal Reserve should pause its policy-tightening cycle sooner than previously anticipated.
During the Asian session, S&P500 futures saw a slight decline. However, US equities recorded significant gains on Thursday, following the release of the US PPI report, which suggested that the Federal Reserve might reconsider its decision to raise rates in the May monetary policy meeting. The market sentiment is highly optimistic, with hopes of the Federal Reserve adopting a neutral policy.
Buy Scenario: - Investors are divided about the possible scale of an interest rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB), and this is contributing to the Euro's gains. A member of the ECB's Governing Council, Bostjan Vasle, recently indicated that they are considering options of a 25 or 50 basis points rate hike for the May policy meeting, but are concerned about the direction of core inflation.
The EUR/USD pair recently broke out of a Rising Channel on a two-hour scale, signaling strong bullish strength. After testing the breakout, the pair surged to a new annual high at 1.1068, and the upward momentum is supported by the advancing 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1010. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is also in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, indicating more potential upside for the pair, till we do not advise to buy EUR/USD currency pair.
Sell Scenario: - On the downside, Investors may find a healthy correction to near the 20-EMA as a good buying opportunity, which could drive the pair towards the annual high at 1.1068, followed by the psychological resistance level of 1.1100. However, if the pair decisively breaks below the low of April 13 at 1.0977, it could trigger a downward move towards the April 12 low at 1.0915, and the April 10 low at 1.0837. Till then we do not advise selling EUR/USD.
Support and Resistance Level: -
SupportResistance
S1 1.0993-R1 1.1084
S2 1.0939-R2 1.1121
S3 1.0902-R3 1.1175

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