Published on Apr 13, 2023

Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 13-04-2023

EUR/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for EUR/USD

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:01	(United Kingdom) RICS House Price Balance	Low	GBP
00:50	(Japan) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners	Low	JPY
02:30	(Australia) Consumer Inflation Expectations	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Employment Change	High	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Unemployment Rate	High	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Participation Rate	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Part Time Employment Chg	Medium	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Full Time Employment Chg	Medium	AUD
04:00	(China) Exports YoY	Medium	CNY
04:00	(China) Balance of Trade	High	CNY
04:00	(China) Imports YoY	Medium	CNY
05:30	(Netherlands) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
05:30	(Netherlands) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
05:30	(Netherlands) CPI	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Germany) CPI	High	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance Non-EU	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) GDP MoM	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) GDP 3-Month Avg	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Industrial Production YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Manufacturing Production YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Manufacturing Production MoM	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Construction Output YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Balance of Trade	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) GDP YoY	Low	GBP
08:00	(Lithuania) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	EUR
09:40	(Spain) Index-Linked Obligacion Auction	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 3-Year Bonos Auction	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 10-Year Obligacion Auction	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(United Kingdom) 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction	Low	GBP
10:10	(Italy) 3-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 7-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 21-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 14-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) CPI	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Current Account	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) CPI	Low	EUR
11:30	(Portugal) Economic Activity YoY	Low	EUR
11:30	(Portugal) Private Consumption YoY	Low	EUR
13:30	(United Kingdom) NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	Low	GBP
13:30	(United States) Core PPI MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PPI YoY	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) PPI YoY	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) PPI MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Continuing Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Initial Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:45	(Germany) Current Account	Low	EUR
14:00	(Ecuador) Balance of Trade	Low	USD
14:00	(United Kingdom) BoE Pill Speech	Medium	GBP
14:00	(Canada) BoC Gov Macklem Speech	Medium	CAD
15:30	(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 8-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 4-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:00	(Canada) 2-Year Bond Auction	Low	CAD
18:00	(United States) 30-Year Bond Auction	Low	USD
19:00	(Germany) Bundesbank Nagel Speech	Low	EUR
23:30	(New Zealand) Business NZ PMI	Medium	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Visitor Arrivals YoY	Low	NZD

Today's Scenario: - In the early hours of the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair has breached the significant psychological resistance level of 1.1000, a feat it has not achieved in over two months. While the major currency pair is currently facing some obstacles in its attempt to extend the rally beyond this level, the upside appears to be quite strong. This can be attributed to the fact that the US inflation rates have softened, just as the market participants had predicted.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has taken a steep dip and is currently hovering around 101.53, fueled by hopes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may consider an early pause in its policy-tightening cycle. Analysts predict that the USD Index will continue to decline and could fall further below its weekly low of 101.42.

Buy Scenario: - During early Thursday, the EUR/USD pair paused around the 1.1000 mark, which is a 2.5-month high after a three-day uptrend. The recent surge in the major currency pair could be attributed to the successful break of the previous weekly high and bullish MACD signals. However, the top line of a rising wedge bearish chart formation that has been in place for the past three weeks, combined with overbought RSI (14) conditions, are posing a challenge for Euro bulls.

As a result, the EUR/USD pair's upward momentum seems limited unless it can sustainably stay above immediate resistance at 1.1010. Even if the pair manages to surpass this hurdle, the Year-To-Date (YTD) high reached in February around 1.1035 could act as an additional barrier before pushing the EUR/USD towards the late March 2022 high of approximately 1.1185, still we do not advise to buy EUR/USD currency pair.

Sell Scenario: - On the downside, if the pair breaks the one-week-old horizontal support at 1.0975-70, which was previously a resistance level, it could find support for intraday trading. Afterward, a three-week-long horizontal support area around 1.0930 will challenge the pair's sellers. However, it is crucial to watch the convergence of the 100-SMA and the aforementioned wedge's bottom line at around 1.0870-65 if the EUR/USD continues to decline.

It should be noted that the 200-SMA level at approximately 1.0755 provides an additional filter for a further downward trend. Till then we do not advise selling EUR/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -