Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 12-04-2023

Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 12-04-2023

EUR/USD Analysis
EUR/USD
Economic Events and Scenario for EUR/USD
Economic Events: -
GMTEventImpactCurrency
00:30(United States) Fed Kashkari SpeechMediumUSD
00:50(Japan) Bank Lending YoYLowJPY
00:50(Japan) PPI YoYLowJPY
00:50(Japan) PPI MoMLowJPY
00:50(Japan) Machinery Orders MoMMediumJPY
00:50(Japan) Machinery Orders YoYMediumJPY
02:30(Australia) Building Permits MoMLowAUD
02:30(Australia) Private House Approvals MoMLowAUD
02:30(Australia) Building Permits YoYLowAUD
05:30(Netherlands) Balance of TradeLowEUR
05:45(Australia) RBA Bullock SpeechMediumAUD
06:00(Finland) Current AccountLowEUR
07:00(Lithuania) PPI YoYLowEUR
07:00(Lithuania) PPI MoMLowEUR
08:00(Slovakia) Construction Output YoYLowEUR
10:00(United Kingdom) 6-Year Index-Linked Treasury Gilt AuctionLowGBP
10:10(Italy) 12-Month BOT AuctionLowEUR
10:10(Italy) 4-Month BOT AuctionLowEUR
10:30(Germany) 30-Year Bund AuctionLowEUR
11:00(Latvia) CPILowEUR
11:00(Latvia) Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
11:00(Latvia) Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
12:00(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage RateMediumUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Mortgage ApplicationsLowUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Mortgage Market IndexLowUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance IndexLowUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Purchase IndexLowUSD
13:30(United States) Inflation Rate MoMMediumUSD
13:30(United States) Core Inflation Rate MoMMediumUSD
13:30(United States) Core Inflation Rate YoYHighUSD
13:30(United States) Inflation Rate YoYHighUSD
13:30(United States) CPIHighUSD
13:30(United States) CPI s.aHighUSD
13:30(Euro Area) ECB Guindos SpeechHighEUR
14:00(Ecuador) Balance of TradeLowUSD
14:00(United Kingdom) BoE Gov Bailey SpeechMediumGBP
15:00(Canada) BoC Monetary Policy ReportHighCAD
15:00(Canada) BoC Interest Rate DecisionMediumCAD
15:30(United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks ChangeMediumUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Gasoline Production ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Distillate Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Crude Oil Imports ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Gasoline Stocks ChangeMediumUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Distillate Fuel Production ChangeLowUSD
16:00(Kosovo) Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
16:00(Canada) BoC Press ConferenceMediumCAD
16:30(United States) 17-Week Bill AuctionLowUSD
18:00(United States) 10-Year Note AuctionLowUSD
19:00(United States) FOMC MinutesHighUSD
19:00(United States) Monthly Budget StatementMediumUSD
20:15(United Kingdom) BoE Gov Bailey SpeechMediumGBP
Today's Scenario: - As the European session began on Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair dropped to 1.0915 after experiencing a rebound from a one-week low in the previous day's trading session. This drop justifies the cautious stance of the market as investors await the release of the crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March and the Minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting. Moreover, recent mixed comments from policymakers at the Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) could pose a challenge for buyers of the Euro pair.
In light of these developments, French central bank chief, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, stated that "Eurozone inflation is at risk of getting entrenched above 2% so the European Central Bank will keep fighting excessive price growth, even as its policy response is shifting gears," as reported by Reuters.
As the market awaits the release of the CPI and the FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, the Euro pair's movement remains unpredictable. However, with the European Central Bank's continued efforts to combat inflation, the market can expect a level of stability in the long term.
Buy Scenario: - The EUR/USD bulls could be drawn towards the monthly high of 1.0973. However, the upside potential is limited unless the pair crosses the 1.1000-05 resistance confluence, which includes the top line of the aforementioned wedge pattern and the February 01 peak.
Moreover, acting as an additional barrier to the upside is the Year-To-Date (YTD) high marked in February, around 1.1035., still we do not advise to buy EUR/USD currency pair.
Sell Scenario: - However, the impending bear cross on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and the quote's repeated failure to remain above 1.0900 presents a tempting opportunity for EUR/USD sellers on a crucial day.
To confirm the breakdown of the rising wedge pattern and attract sellers, the pair's pullback must surpass the support line of the stated bearish pattern, which currently stands at 1.0870 at the latest.
If successful, the pair's anticipated drop toward the theoretical target of around 1.0610 can face a temporary halt at the 50-day moving average (DMA) support of approximately 1.0735.Till then we do not advise selling EUR/USD.
Support and Resistance Level: -
SupportResistance
S1 1.0870-R1 1.0941
S2 1.0828-R2 1.0970
S3 1.0798-R3 1.1013

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