Published on May 11, 2023

Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 11-05-2023

EUR/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for EUR/USD

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:01	(United Kingdom) RICS House Price Balance	Low	GBP
00:50	(Japan) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Bank Lending YoY	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Current Account	Medium	JPY
00:50	(Japan) BoJ Summary of Opinions	Medium	JPY
02:00	(Australia) Consumer Inflation Expectations	Low	AUD
02:30	(China) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	CNY
02:30	(China) PPI YoY	Medium	CNY
02:30	(China) Inflation Rate YoY	High	CNY
04:35	(Japan) 30-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
05:30	(Netherlands) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
05:30	(Netherlands) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
05:30	(Netherlands) CPI	Low	EUR
06:00	(Japan) Eco Watchers Survey Current	Low	JPY
06:00	(Japan) Eco Watchers Survey Outlook	Low	JPY
07:00	(Lithuania) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(China) Vehicle Sales YoY	Low	CNY
08:00	(Slovakia) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Malta) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 3-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 7-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) CPI	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) CPI	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) CPI	Low	EUR
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE Interest Rate Decision	High	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE MPC Vote Cut	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE MPC Vote Unchanged	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE MPC Vote Hike	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) MPC Meeting Minutes	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE Monetary Policy Report	High	GBP
13:00	(United Kingdom) NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	Low	GBP
13:00	(Euro Area) ECB Schnabel Speech	Low	EUR
13:30	(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Continuing Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Initial Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PPI YoY	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PPI MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) PPI YoY	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) PPI MoM	High	USD
15:15	(United States) Fed Waller Speech	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change	Low	USD
16:00	(Kosovo) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
16:30	(United States) 8-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 4-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) 30-Year Bond Auction	Low	USD
18:30	(Euro Area) ECB Guindos Speech	High	EUR
23:30	(New Zealand) Business NZ PMI	Medium	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Visitor Arrivals YoY	Low	NZD

Today's Scenario: - During Thursday's European session, the EUR/USD pair experienced a decline, hitting an intraday low around 1.0970. This drop occurred as the pair retraced the rebound it experienced on the previous day from the weekly low. Despite expectations of hawkishness from the European Central Bank (ECB) and negative US inflation indicators, the Euro pair failed to perform as anticipated, amid a mixed sentiment.

Several ECB officials, including President Christine Lagarde, attempted to support the bank's hawkish stance. Some team members believed that the recent decline in European and German statistics indicates a policy pivot was nearing. However, the Euro pair's failure to respond positively to these efforts suggests that the market is skeptical about the ECB's claims.

To sum up, the EUR/USD pair experienced a decline during Thursday's European session. Despite the ECB's hawkish expectations and negative US inflation indicators, the Euro pair failed to perform as expected, causing mixed sentiment in the market. ECB officials attempted to support their hawkish bias, but the market remains skeptical.

Buy Scenario: - Although the Euro pair has experienced a recent rebound, its short-term upside is being constrained by a convergence of the 21-day moving average (21-DMA) and a descending resistance line that is one week old. This convergence occurs around the round figure of 1.1000, till we do not advise to buy EUR/USD currency pair.

Sell Scenario: - The EUR/USD pair is currently retreating from a descending resistance line that has been in place for one week, located around the 1.1000 round figure. As it drops, it is approaching an upward-sloping support line from April 17, which is currently near 1.0960. Despite this, the MACD signals indicate bearishness, and the RSI (14) line remains steady, giving Euro bears hope for further downside movement. Till then we do not advise selling EUR/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -