Published on May 10, 2023

Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 10-05-2023

EUR/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for EUR/USD

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:50	(Japan) Foreign Exchange Reserves	Low	JPY
01:00	(El Salvador) Mothers' Day	None	USD
05:30	(Netherlands) Manufacturing Production MoM	Low	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Japan) Coincident Index	Low	JPY
06:00	(Japan) Leading Economic Index	Low	JPY
07:00	(Germany) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Germany) CPI	High	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Belgium) Industrial Production MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Belgium) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
10:00	(Greece) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Greece) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Greece) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Greece) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Malta) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
10:00	(United Kingdom) 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction	Low	GBP
10:10	(Italy) 12-Month BOT Auction	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 30-Year Bund Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Spain) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
12:00	(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate	Medium	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Applications	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Market Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Purchase Index	Low	USD
13:30	(Canada) Building Permits MoM	Low	CAD
13:30	(United States) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Core Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Inflation Rate YoY	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Core Inflation Rate YoY	High	USD
13:30	(United States) CPI	High	USD
13:30	(United States) CPI s.a	High	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Distillate Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Production Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Imports Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 17-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:00	(Canada) 2-Year Bond Auction	Low	CAD
18:00	(United States) 10-Year Note Auction	Low	USD
19:00	(United States) Monthly Budget Statement	Medium	USD
23:45	(New Zealand) Food Inflation YoY	Low	NZD

Today's Scenario: - As Wednesday's trading session begins in Asia, the EUR/USD is holding at lower levels near 1.0960. The currency pair has experienced a downtrend for the past two days and dropped to a fresh two-week low yesterday, mainly due to the US dollar's broad strength. This strength comes as markets prepare for the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April, which is a key economic indicator.

Despite the unimpressive data and looming fears from the US banking sector, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has risen in the last two consecutive days. On Monday, the Fed Bank Loan Survey reported uninspiring findings, while US Senate Democratic leader Schumer recently stated that House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, a Republican, refused to take default off the table.

As we wait for the release of the US CPI, investors will be keeping a close eye on any indications of inflationary pressure. A higher-than-expected CPI reading could lead to further strength in the US dollar and push the EUR/USD currency pair even lower.

Buy Scenario: - The EUR/USD currency pair has fallen below its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time since mid-March. Although the overall trend is still upward, the Euro's strength has weakened, making a deeper correction more likely. To resume the upward trend, the Euro must close above 1.1060 or break firmly above 1.1100, till we do not advise to buy EUR/USD currency pair.

Sell Scenario: - At the start of the Asian trading session, the EUR/USD exhibits a bearish bias but has found support above 1.0950 and the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. However, if the currency pair drops below this level, it could increase the bearish pressure and expose the next support level at around 1.0925. A break below 1.0900 could lead to volatility and accelerate the downside momentum. Till then we do not advise selling EUR/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -