Published on May 9, 2023

Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 09-05-2023

EUR/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for EUR/USD

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:01	(United Kingdom) BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY	High	GBP
00:30	(Japan) Overtime Pay YoY	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Average Cash Earnings YoY	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Household Spending MoM	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Household Spending YoY	Low	JPY
01:00	(Euro Area) Anniversary of Robert Schumans Declaration	None	EUR
01:00	(Luxembourg) Europe Day	None	EUR
02:30	(Australia) Retail Sales MoM	High	AUD
04:00	(China) Exports YoY	Medium	CNY
04:00	(China) Imports YoY	Medium	CNY
04:00	(China) Balance of Trade	High	CNY
04:35	(Japan) 10-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
04:35	(Japan) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	JPY
07:00	(Lithuania) CPI	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) Halifax House Price Index YoY	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Halifax House Price Index MoM	Medium	GBP
07:45	(France) Current Account	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Balance of Trade	Medium	EUR
07:45	(France) Exports	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Imports	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
08:30	(France) Foreign Exchange Reserves	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) ECB Lane Speech	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 6-Month Letras Auction	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 12-Month Letras Auction	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 5-Year Bobl Auction	Low	EUR
10:30	(Australia) 2023-24 Federal Budget	Medium	AUD
11:00	(United Kingdom) BBA Mortgage Rate	Low	GBP
11:00	(Ireland) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(United States) NFIB Business Optimism Index	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Fed Jefferson Speech	Medium	USD
13:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
14:00	(France) 3-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 12-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 6-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
15:00	(United States) IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) NY Fed Treasury Purchases 0 to 1 yrs	Low	USD
17:05	(United States) Fed Williams Speech	Medium	USD
18:00	(United States) 3-Year Note Auction	Low	USD
18:00	(Euro Area) ECB Schnabel Speech	Low	EUR
21:30	(United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - During early Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair experienced a decline of 0.17%, nearing 1.0990, as the Euro bears prodded a 1.1000 round figure, causing the pair to hold onto the week-start losses. The market's mixed sentiment and the US Dollar's rebound, along with recent weaker Eurozone data, influenced the major currency pair's movement.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) continued its rebound from the previous day due to firmer yields and mixed signals concerning inflation and banking conditions. In the last three days, the benchmark US 10-year Treasury bond yields rose to 3.51%, while the US inflation expectations based on the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data surged to a one-week high on the previous day.

Buy Scenario: - On the buying side of EUR/USD pair, if the asset recovers and rises above the April 26 high at 1.1095, it will move towards a fresh 13-month high at 1.1185, followed by the round-level resistance at 1.1200, till we do not advise to buy EUR/USD currency pair.

Sell Scenario: - EUR/USD has exhibited a significant loss in its upside momentum, following the attainment of its annual high at 1.1096. The shared currency pair is encountering difficulty in maintaining its position above the horizontal resistance marked from the February 02 high at 1.1033. The Euro is currently being supported by the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0983.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating within the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a lackluster performance ahead.

If the asset breaches the May 02 low at 1.0942, the US Dollar bulls will initiate a downside move that will cause the asset to slide towards the April 12 low at 1.0915 and the April 10 low at 1.0837. Till then we do not advise selling EUR/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -