Daily Analysis For EUR/USD  04-05-2023

Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 04-05-2023

EUR/USD Analysis
01:00(Japan) Greenery DayNoneJPY
01:00(Latvia) Declaration of Independence DayNoneEUR
01:01(Ireland) AIB Services PMILowEUR
02:30(Australia) Exports MoMLowAUD
02:30(Australia) Imports MoMLowAUD
02:30(Australia) Balance of TradeHighAUD
02:45(China) Caixin Manufacturing PMIHighCNY
06:00(Estonia) Industrial Production MoMLowEUR
06:00(Estonia) Industrial Production YoYLowEUR
07:00(Germany) Balance of TradeHighEUR
07:00(Germany) Exports MoMMediumEUR
07:00(Germany) Imports MoMLowEUR
08:00(Spain) Unemployment ChangeHighEUR
08:00(Spain) Tourist Arrivals YoYLowEUR
08:15(Spain) S&P Global Services PMIHighEUR
08:15(Spain) S&P Global Composite PMILowEUR
08:45(Italy) S&P Global Services PMIHighEUR
08:45(Italy) S&P Global Composite PMILowEUR
08:50(France) S&P Global Services PMIMediumEUR
08:50(France) S&P Global Composite PMILowEUR
08:55(Germany) S&P Global Services PMIHighEUR
08:55(Germany) S&P Global Composite PMILowEUR
09:00(Euro Area) S&P Global Composite PMILowEUR
09:00(Euro Area) S&P Global Services PMIHighEUR
09:00(United Kingdom) New Car Sales YoYLowGBP
09:30(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMIHighGBP
09:30(United Kingdom) Net Lending to Individuals MoMLowGBP
09:30(United Kingdom) Mortgage ApprovalsMediumGBP
09:30(United Kingdom) Mortgage LendingMediumGBP
09:30(United Kingdom) BoE Consumer CreditMediumGBP
09:30(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMILowGBP
09:40(Spain) Index-Linked Obligacion AuctionLowEUR
09:40(Spain) Obligacion AuctionLowEUR
09:40(Spain) Bonos AuctionLowEUR
09:40(Spain) 3-Year Bonos AuctionLowEUR
10:00(France) New Car Registrations YoYLowEUR
10:00(Cyprus) Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
10:00(Cyprus) Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
10:00(Euro Area) PPI MoMLowEUR
10:00(Euro Area) PPI YoYLowEUR
10:00(France) 10-Year OAT AuctionLowEUR
11:00(Ireland) Unemployment RateLowEUR
12:30(Germany) New Car Registrations YoYLowEUR
12:30(United States) Challenger Job CutsLowUSD
13:15(Euro Area) Marginal Lending RateLowEUR
13:15(Euro Area) Deposit Facility RateHighEUR
13:15(Euro Area) ECB Interest Rate DecisionHighEUR
13:30(Canada) ImportsLowCAD
13:30(Canada) ExportsLowCAD
13:30(Canada) Balance of TradeHighCAD
13:30(United States) Unit Labour Costs QoQMediumUSD
13:30(United States) Nonfarm Productivity QoQMediumUSD
13:30(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week AverageHighUSD
13:30(United States) Continuing Jobless ClaimsHighUSD
13:30(United States) Initial Jobless ClaimsHighUSD
13:30(United States) Balance of TradeHighUSD
13:30(United States) ExportsMediumUSD
13:30(United States) ImportsMediumUSD
13:45(Euro Area) ECB Press ConferenceHighEUR
15:00(Canada) Ivey PMI s.aHighCAD
15:30(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) NY Fed Treasury Purchases TIPS 1 to 7.5 yrsLowUSD
16:30(United States) 8-Week Bill AuctionLowUSD
16:30(United States) 4-Week Bill AuctionLowUSD

Today's Scenario: - As the crucial European trading session approaches on Thursday, EUR/USD remains steady around its intraday high, taking a breather after a three-day bullish run that brought it close to 1.1090. The Federal Reserve's recent dovish monetary policy announcements provided a boost to the Euro pair, pushing it to its highest point for the week. However, the bulls are feeling cautious due to the ongoing banking crisis, as they await the all-important European Central Bank (ECB) Monetary Policy Decision.
The Fed's decision to raise benchmark rates to their highest levels since 2007 failed to impress US Dollar buyers on Wednesday, as the Monetary Policy Statement left room for speculation regarding a possible pause in the Fed's policy tightening. Despite this, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was optimistic, downplaying concerns of a banking crisis. Nevertheless, the statement's mention of the need for further rate hikes drew significant attention and weighed on the US Dollar, even though the Fed's move was considered hawkish.

Buy Scenario: - On the Buying side, if the EUR/USD can break the 1.1110 hurdle, which is also the top line of the channel, the Euro price may soar towards the March 2022 high, close to 1.1185. till we do not advise to buy EUR/USD currency pair.

Sell Scenario: - EUR/USD is trading with slight gains near 1.1070, holding onto its highest levels in 13 months. The Euro bulls have been in control, supported by a three-week-long upward trending channel, which was initiated after a boost from the Federal Reserve. However, there is a discrepancy between the RSI (14) line and the EUR/USD price, which is challenging the buyers ahead of the significant event, the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decision.
The descending formation of the RSI (14) line since April 14 suggests that the bulls are losing momentum despite the Euro pair's recent upward grind. This situation, combined with the resistance line of the trend channel at around 1.1110, increases the likelihood of a pullback for EUR/USD.
If a pullback occurs, intraday sellers may target the convergence of the 100-SMA and the previous week's resistance line at around 1.0995, before the bottom line of the channel at around 1.0950. However, the bears should be cautious ahead of the 200-SMA break, currently at around 1.0925. Till then we do not advise selling EUR/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -
S1 1.1010-R1 1.1101
S2 1.0960-R2 1.1142
S3 1.0919-R3 1.1192


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