Published on May 4, 2023

Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 04-05-2023

EUR/USD Analysis

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
01:00	(Japan) Greenery Day	None	JPY
01:00	(Latvia) Declaration of Independence Day	None	EUR
01:01	(Ireland) AIB Services PMI	Low	EUR
02:30	(Australia) Exports MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Imports MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Balance of Trade	High	AUD
02:45	(China) Caixin Manufacturing PMI	High	CNY
06:00	(Estonia) Industrial Production MoM	Low	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Balance of Trade	High	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Exports MoM	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Imports MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Unemployment Change	High	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Tourist Arrivals YoY	Low	EUR
08:15	(Spain) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
08:15	(Spain) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:45	(Italy) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
08:45	(Italy) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:50	(France) S&P Global Services PMI	Medium	EUR
08:50	(France) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:55	(Germany) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
08:55	(Germany) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(United Kingdom) New Car Sales YoY	Low	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI	High	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) Net Lending to Individuals MoM	Low	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) Mortgage Approvals	Medium	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) Mortgage Lending	Medium	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) BoE Consumer Credit	Medium	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI	Low	GBP
09:40	(Spain) Index-Linked Obligacion Auction	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) Obligacion Auction	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) Bonos Auction	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 3-Year Bonos Auction	Low	EUR
10:00	(France) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(France) 10-Year OAT Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
12:30	(Germany) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
12:30	(United States) Challenger Job Cuts	Low	USD
13:15	(Euro Area) Marginal Lending Rate	Low	EUR
13:15	(Euro Area) Deposit Facility Rate	High	EUR
13:15	(Euro Area) ECB Interest Rate Decision	High	EUR
13:30	(Canada) Imports	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Exports	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Balance of Trade	High	CAD
13:30	(United States) Unit Labour Costs QoQ	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Nonfarm Productivity QoQ	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Continuing Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Initial Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Balance of Trade	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Exports	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Imports	Medium	USD
13:45	(Euro Area) ECB Press Conference	High	EUR
15:00	(Canada) Ivey PMI s.a	High	CAD
15:30	(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) NY Fed Treasury Purchases TIPS 1 to 7.5 yrs	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 8-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 4-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - As the crucial European trading session approaches on Thursday, EUR/USD remains steady around its intraday high, taking a breather after a three-day bullish run that brought it close to 1.1090. The Federal Reserve's recent dovish monetary policy announcements provided a boost to the Euro pair, pushing it to its highest point for the week. However, the bulls are feeling cautious due to the ongoing banking crisis, as they await the all-important European Central Bank (ECB) Monetary Policy Decision.

The Fed's decision to raise benchmark rates to their highest levels since 2007 failed to impress US Dollar buyers on Wednesday, as the Monetary Policy Statement left room for speculation regarding a possible pause in the Fed's policy tightening. Despite this, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was optimistic, downplaying concerns of a banking crisis. Nevertheless, the statement's mention of the need for further rate hikes drew significant attention and weighed on the US Dollar, even though the Fed's move was considered hawkish.

Buy Scenario: - On the Buying side, if the EUR/USD can break the 1.1110 hurdle, which is also the top line of the channel, the Euro price may soar towards the March 2022 high, close to 1.1185. till we do not advise to buy EUR/USD currency pair.

Sell Scenario: - EUR/USD is trading with slight gains near 1.1070, holding onto its highest levels in 13 months. The Euro bulls have been in control, supported by a three-week-long upward trending channel, which was initiated after a boost from the Federal Reserve. However, there is a discrepancy between the RSI (14) line and the EUR/USD price, which is challenging the buyers ahead of the significant event, the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decision.

The descending formation of the RSI (14) line since April 14 suggests that the bulls are losing momentum despite the Euro pair's recent upward grind. This situation, combined with the resistance line of the trend channel at around 1.1110, increases the likelihood of a pullback for EUR/USD.

If a pullback occurs, intraday sellers may target the convergence of the 100-SMA and the previous week's resistance line at around 1.0995, before the bottom line of the channel at around 1.0950. However, the bears should be cautious ahead of the 200-SMA break, currently at around 1.0925. Till then we do not advise selling EUR/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -