Published on Apr 4, 2023

Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 04-04-2023

EUR/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for EUR/USD

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
04:35	(Japan) 10-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
05:30	(Australia) RBA Interest Rate Decision	High	AUD
07:00	(Germany) Imports MoM s.a	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Exports MoM s.a	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Balance of Trade s.a	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Unemployment Change	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) ECB Consumer Expectations Survey	Medium	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(France) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Current Account	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) Index-Linked Bund Auction	Low	EUR
10:30	(United States) LMI Logistics Managers Index Current	Low	USD
10:30	(Germany) 30-Year Bund/â‚¬i Auction	Low	EUR
11:30	(Portugal) Budget Balance	Low	EUR
13:30	(Canada) Building Permits MoM	Low	CAD
13:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) JOLTs Job Quits	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) JOLTs Job Openings	High	USD
15:00	(United States) Factory Orders ex Transportation	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Factory Orders MoM	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism	Medium	USD
15:30	(United Kingdom) BoE Pill Speech	Medium	GBP
16:00	(New Zealand) Global Dairy Trade Price Index	Low	NZD
17:00	(Belgium) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
17:30	(United Kingdom) BoE Financial Policy Summary and Record	Medium	GBP
18:30	(United States) Fed Cook Speech	Medium	USD
21:30	(United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	USD
23:45	(United States) Fed Mester Speech	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - 1.0890-1.0895 range as bullish momentum takes a momentary pause. This pause in momentum is likely due to a relatively light economic calendar and a slightly unusual market sentiment. Additionally, the recent retracement of the Euro pair could be attributed to the recent rebound in US Treasury bond yields.

Buy Scenario: - EUR/USD continues to maintain its strength from the beginning of the week as bullish momentum approaches the crucial resistance level of 1.0930. At the time of writing on early Tuesday, the pair is trading around 1.0910. This bullish movement is supported by the MACD signals and an upward-sloping RSI (14) line, indicating that the Euro pair is not yet overbought.

Moreover, the Euro pair's successful trading above the convergence of the 21-day and 50-day moving averages, currently around 1.0730-25, further strengthens the bullish bias. As a result, buyers are expected to overcome the significant resistance level that has been marked by multiple levels since late January 2023.

Once the key resistance level is surpassed, the Year-To-Date (YTD) high of 1.1033 may act as an additional barrier before directing the EUR/USD bulls towards the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) level of its November 2022 to March 2023 moves, located near 1.1190, still we do not advise to buy EUR/USD currency pair.

Sell Scenario: - On the other hand, if the EUR/USD pair breaks below the previously mentioned convergence of the 21-day and 50-day moving averages near 1.0730-25, it does not necessarily mean that the bears will take control. This is because there is an ascending support line from September 2022, currently around 1.0630, which may act as the final line of defense for buyers. Till then we do not advise selling EUR/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -