Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 03-05-2023

Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 03-05-2023

EUR/USD Analysis
EUR/USD
Economic Events and Scenario for EUR/USD
Economic Events: -
GMTEventImpactCurrency
00:00(Australia) Ai Group Industry IndexMediumAUD
00:00(Australia) Judo Bank Services PMIHighAUD
00:00(Australia) Judo Bank Composite PMILowAUD
00:00(Australia) Ai Group Construction IndexLowAUD
00:00(Australia) Ai Group Manufacturing IndexLowAUD
01:00(China) May DayNoneCNY
01:00(Japan) Constitution Memorial DayNoneJPY
02:30(Australia) Retail Sales MoMHighAUD
02:30(Australia) RBA Chart PackLowAUD
07:45(France) Budget BalanceLowEUR
09:00(Italy) Unemployment RateHighEUR
10:00(Cyprus) Unemployment RateLowEUR
10:00(Euro Area) Unemployment RateHighEUR
10:00(France) New Car Registrations YoYLowEUR
10:00(United Kingdom) 2-Year Treasury Gilt AuctionLowGBP
10:30(Germany) 7-Year Bund AuctionLowEUR
11:00(Belgium) New Car Registrations YoYLowEUR
11:00(Portugal) Industrial Production YoYLowEUR
11:00(Portugal) Industrial Production MoMLowEUR
11:10(European Union) 6-Month Bill AuctionLowEUR
11:10(European Union) 3-Month Bill AuctionLowEUR
11:30(Portugal) Budget BalanceLowEUR
12:00(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage RateMediumUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Mortgage ApplicationsLowUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance IndexLowUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Mortgage Market IndexLowUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Purchase IndexLowUSD
12:30(Germany) New Car Registrations YoYLowEUR
13:15(United States) ADP Employment ChangeHighUSD
14:30(United States) Treasury Refunding AnnouncementLowUSD
14:45(United States) S&P Global Composite PMIMediumUSD
14:45(United States) S&P Global Services PMIHighUSD
15:00(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing PricesLowUSD
15:00(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing New OrdersLowUSD
15:00(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing EmploymentMediumUSD
15:00(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMIHighUSD
15:00(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing Business ActivityLowUSD
15:00(United States) Total Vehicle SalesLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks ChangeMediumUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Distillate Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Gasoline Production ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Crude Oil Imports ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Gasoline Stocks ChangeMediumUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Distillate Fuel Production ChangeLowUSD
16:30(United States) 17-Week Bill AuctionLowUSD
19:00(United States) Fed Interest Rate DecisionHighUSD
19:30(United States) Fed Press ConferenceHighUSD
23:45(New Zealand) Building Permits MoMLowNZD
Today's Scenario: - In the early Asian session, the EUR/USD pair has surged above the significant resistance level of 1.1000. This major currency pair has set its sights on maintaining a confident position above the 1.1000 mark. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has experienced intense selling pressure after failing to break through the two-week-old resistance level of 102.20.
Ahead of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy announcement and due to concerns over default by the United States administration as the debt ceiling has yet to be raised, market participants heavily dumped the S&P500. Currently, market sentiment is negative as the possibility of more rate hikes by the Fed deepens fears of a recession in the US economy.
Buy Scenario: - The EUR/USD pair is currently showing signs of hope for buyers as it bounced off the 21-day moving average (DMA) support level at around 1.0970. Moreover, there was an upward break of the previous resistance line from one week ago, which is now functioning as nearby support around 1.0990.
However, the buyers may face a challenge from a previous support line from one month ago, which is close to 1.1025 presently. This level is followed by an upward-sloping resistance line from February 2023, which is around 1.1075, and could potentially limit the upside potential for the EUR/USD bulls.
It's important to note that the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals are bearish, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) line with a 14-period setting is firm and not in overbought territory. This suggests that the EUR/USD prices could potentially have a gradual increase, till we do not advise to buy EUR/USD currency pair.
Sell Scenario: - However, a downside break of the previous resistance line from April 26, which is now acting as immediate support near 1.0990, could shift the momentum in favor of Euro sellers. In such a scenario, the 21-DMA support level of 1.0970 could be the next target for the bears. If the sellers gain control, they may look to test the tops marked during late March around 1.0930. Till then we do not advise selling EUR/USD.
Support and Resistance Level: -
SupportResistance
S1 1.0960-R1 1.1026
S2 1.0918-R2 1.1050
S3 1.0894-R3 1.1091

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