Published on Mar 3, 2023

Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 03-03-2023

EUR/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for EUR/USD

Economic Events : -

GMT		Event	Currency
07:00	-	(Germany) Balance of Trade	EUR
07:45	-	(France) Industrial Production MoM	EUR
08:15	-	(Spain) S&P Global Services PMI	EUR
08:30	-	(Euro Area) ECB Guindos Speech	EUR
08:45	-	(Italy) S&P Global Services PMI	EUR
08:50	-	(France) S&P Global Services PMI	EUR
08:55	-	(Germany) S&P Global Services PMI	EUR
09:00	-	(Euro Area) S&P Global Services PMI	EUR
09:00	-	(Italy) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	EUR
09:00	-	(Italy) GDP Growth Rate YoY	EUR
14:45	-	(United States) S&P Global Services PMI	USD
14:45	-	(United States) S&P Global Composite PMI	USD
15:00	-	(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment	USD
15:00	-	(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI	USD
16:00	-	(United States) Fed Logan Speech	USD
16:45	-	(United States) Fed Bostic Speech	USD
20:00	-	(United States) Fed Bowman Speech	USD
21:45	-	(United States) Fed Barkin Speech	USD

Today's Scenario : - During the Asian trading session, the EUR/USD pair has managed to climb above the significant resistance level of 1.0600, following a rebound. The primary currency pair is now aiming to maintain its position above the 1.0600 mark, while the US Dollar Index (DXY) is exhibiting a lackluster performance.

In the current trading session, the EUR/USD pair has broken through a crucial barrier, marking a significant milestone for the currency pair. It has managed to surpass the round-level resistance of 1.0600, which has been a formidable hurdle for the currency pair to overcome. The move is primarily attributed to the recent recovery seen in the market, boosting the momentum of the EUR/USD pair.

Buy Scenario : - It is important to take note that despite the bullish sentiment, the bearish MACD signals are now aligning with the EUR/USD pair's continuous trading below the 200-Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

This alignment is challenging the bullish bias, making it difficult for the currency pair to sustain its recent rebound below the triangle's top line at around 1.0675 and the 200-EMA level at approximately 1.0685.

However, if the EUR/USD price manages to rally above the 1.0685 hurdle, it may signal a validation point for a potential run-up towards the mid-February swing high, which is located around 1.0800.

In summary, while the recent rebound of the EUR/USD pair may face resistance below the 1.0675 and 1.0685 levels, a potential breakthrough may lead to a surge towards the mid-February swing high of 1.0800, still we do not advise to buy EUR/USD currency pair.

Sell Scenario: - If the EUR/USD price manages to surpass the 1.0685 hurdle, the 1.0700 threshold may serve as a validation point for a potential surge towards the mid-February swing high around 1.0800.

On the other hand, a downward breakout of the triangle's lower line, currently at approximately 1.0580, could align with the bearish MACD signals to attract EUR/USD sellers. In this scenario, the weekly low near 1.0530 may act as a challenge for further downside movements, followed by January's bottom around 1.0480.

Overall, traders of the EUR/USD pair should not overlook its recent rebound unless the quote surpasses the 1.0685 hurdle. However, the possibility of downside movements appears to be limited. Till then we do not advise selling EUR/USD.

Support and Resistance Level : -