Daily Analysis For EUR/USD  02-05-2023

Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 02-05-2023

EUR/USD Analysis
Economic Events and Scenario for EUR/USD
Economic Events: -
01:00(China) May DayNoneCNY
01:00(Montenegro) Labor dayNoneEUR
01:01(Ireland) AIB Manufacturing PMILowEUR
04:35(Japan) 3-Month Bill AuctionLowJPY
05:30(Australia) RBA Interest Rate DecisionHighAUD
05:30(Netherlands) Inflation Rate YoYMediumEUR
05:30(Netherlands) Business ConfidenceLowEUR
06:00(Netherlands) NEVI Manufacturing PMILowEUR
07:00(United Kingdom) Nationwide Housing Prices YoYMediumGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Nationwide Housing Prices MoMMediumGBP
07:00(Germany) Retail Sales MoMHighEUR
07:00(Germany) Retail Sales YoYHighEUR
07:00(Lithuania) GDP Growth Rate YoYLowEUR
07:00(Lithuania) GDP Growth Rate QoQLowEUR
08:00(Austria) Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(Austria) Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
08:00(Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
08:00(Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(Switzerland) Consumer ConfidenceHighCHF
08:15(Spain) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIHighEUR
08:30(Austria) Unemployment RateHighEUR
08:30(Austria) Unemployed PersonsLowEUR
08:30(Switzerland) procure.ch Manufacturing PMIHighCHF
08:45(Italy) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIHighEUR
08:50(France) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIMediumEUR
08:55(Germany) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIHighEUR
09:00(Euro Area) Loans to Households YoYLowEUR
09:00(Euro Area) M3 Money Supply YoYLowEUR
09:00(Euro Area) Loans to Companies YoYLowEUR
09:00(Euro Area) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIHighEUR
09:00(Greece) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIHighEUR
09:30(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMIHighGBP
09:30(United States) LMI Logistics Managers Index CurrentLowUSD
10:00(Cyprus) Retail Sales YoYLowEUR
10:00(Euro Area) Core Inflation Rate YoYMediumEUR
10:00(Euro Area) Inflation Rate YoYHighEUR
10:00(Euro Area) Inflation Rate MoMMediumEUR
10:00(Euro Area) CPIHighEUR
10:00(Italy) CPIHighEUR
10:00(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
10:00(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
10:00(Italy) Inflation Rate MoMMediumEUR
10:00(Italy) Inflation Rate YoYHighEUR
10:30(Germany) Index-Linked Bund AuctionLowEUR
11:00(Portugal) Retail Sales YoYLowEUR
11:00(Portugal) Retail Sales MoMLowEUR
11:00(Spain) New Car Sales YoYLowEUR
11:00(Greece) Total Credit YoYLowEUR
11:00(Italy) PPI MoMLowEUR
11:00(Italy) PPI YoYLowEUR
13:55(United States) Redbook YoYLowUSD
14:00(France) 3-Month BTF AuctionLowEUR
14:00(France) 12-Month BTF AuctionLowEUR
14:00(France) 6-Month BTF AuctionLowEUR
15:00(United States) JOLTs Job QuitsLowUSD
15:00(United States) JOLTs Job OpeningsHighUSD
15:00(United States) Factory Orders ex TransportationLowUSD
15:00(United States) Factory Orders MoMMediumUSD
15:00(United States) Total Vehicle SalesLowUSD
16:00(New Zealand) Global Dairy Trade Price IndexLowNZD
17:00(Belgium) New Car Registrations YoYLowEUR
17:00(Italy) New Car Registrations YoYLowEUR
21:30(United States) API Crude Oil Stock ChangeMediumUSD
22:00(New Zealand) RBNZ Financial Stability ReportMediumNZD
23:45(New Zealand) Participation RateLowNZD
23:45(New Zealand) Labour Costs Index YoYLowNZD
23:45(New Zealand) Labour Costs Index QoQLowNZD
23:45(New Zealand) Employment Change QoQHighNZD
23:45(New Zealand) Unemployment RateHighNZD

Today's Scenario: - Early on Tuesday morning in Europe, the EUR/USD currency pair bounced back from a three-day downtrend, following the retreat of the US Dollar. The Euro also gained support from the market's apprehension ahead of the release of crucial Eurozone inflation data, which coincided with the return of traders after a long weekend.
It's essential to note that various factors, such as the talks surrounding the US default and hawkish Fed bets, as well as discussions about China's growth and the ongoing tension between China and the US, appear to challenge the market's previously bullish outlook on the US Dollar. This shift in sentiment could be attributed to the European Central Bank's (ECB) readiness to maintain interest rates, despite concerns about a possible recession, even if the latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the Eurozone and Germany indicate a slight softening.

Buy Scenario: - For the EUR/USD currency pair to have a bullish session, it needs to surpass the $1.0991 pivot and aim for the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1.1018. Breaking through the $1.10 mark would confirm the bullish trend. However, this will only happen if economic indicators from both the eurozone and the US support a breakout session.
If the bulls manage to push the currency pair further, they will likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1.1062, with the Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sitting at $1.1134, till we do not advise to buy EUR/USD currency pair.

Sell Scenario: - On the other hand, failing to surpass the pivot would mean that the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1.0946 becomes a crucial support level. Unless there's a sell-off triggered by economic data, the EUR/USD pair should stay above the sub-$1.09 mark. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1.0920 should limit the downside, with the Third Major Support Level (S3) at $1.0848 serving as the ultimate support level. Till then we do not advise selling EUR/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -
S1 1.0947-R1 1.1018
S2 1.0920-R2 1.1062
S3 1.0876-R3 1.1089


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