Published on May 1, 2023

Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 01-05-2023

EUR/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for EUR/USD

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI	High	AUD
01:00	(Austria) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Belgium) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(China) May Day	None	CNY
01:00	(Cyprus) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Ecuador) Labor Day	None	USD
01:00	(El Salvador) Labor Day	None	USD
01:00	(Estonia) Spring Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Euro Area) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Finland) May Day	None	EUR
01:00	(France) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Germany) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Greece) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Ireland) May Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Italy) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Latvia) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Lithuania) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Luxembourg) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Malta) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Montenegro) Labor day	None	EUR
01:00	(Portugal) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Spain) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(United Kingdom) May Day Bank Holiday	None	GBP
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	Medium	JPY
02:00	(Australia) TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM	Low	AUD
06:00	(Japan) Consumer Confidence	High	JPY
07:30	(Australia) Commodity Prices YoY	Low	AUD
09:00	(Switzerland) Myfxbook USDCHF Sentiment	Medium	CHF
09:00	(Australia) Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment	Medium	AUD
09:00	(Japan) Myfxbook USDJPY Sentiment	Medium	JPY
09:00	(European Union) Myfxbook EURUSD Sentiment	Medium	EUR
09:00	(United Kingdom) Myfxbook GBPUSD Sentiment	Medium	GBP
09:00	(Canada) Myfxbook USDCAD Sentiment	Medium	CAD
09:00	(New Zealand) Myfxbook NZDUSD Sentiment	Medium	NZD
14:30	(Canada) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	CAD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Manufacturing Prices	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Manufacturing New Orders	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Manufacturing Employment	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Construction Spending MoM	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Manufacturing PMI	High	USD
16:30	(United States) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - For the third day in a row, the EUR/USD exchange rate remains low, hovering near 1.1010 during Monday's Asian session, despite being at its highest levels since April 2022. The Euro pair is facing pressure due to the recent decrease in hawkish expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB) and the strong inflation signals coming from the United States. In addition, fears of an economic slowdown and the current issues facing First Republic are also presenting challenges for those who wish to buy into the multi-month high.

First Republic, a US-based bank, has been struggling with an exodus of withdrawals, causing its share price to plummet. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) has called for bids to help resolve the situation. Despite JP Morgan and other top-tier private organizations placing bids for the takeover, the outcome is still uncertain. Even if a private entity steps in to defend the bank in the short-term, this is not a long-term solution to the broader banking problems that exist. Such actions may raise concerns of similar issues occurring in larger public banks in the future, leading to an overall risk-off mood that could continue.

Buy Scenario: - The EUR/USD pair if there is a recovery in the EUR/USD exchange rate, it may aim for the 1.1050 round figures before moving towards a 12-day-long horizontal resistance area surrounding 1.1065-70. Following that, the recently marked multi-month high of 1.1095 may prompt Euro pair buyers, directing them towards the March 2022 peak, close to 1.1185, till we do not advise to buy EUR/USD currency pair.

Sell Scenario: - The EUR/USD exchange rate faced selling pressure early on Monday, as the bears attacked the 1.1000 round figure. This marks the third consecutive day of decline for the Euro pair, as it broke below the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and an ascending trend line from April 10. The broad strength of the US Dollar and sluggish markets due to holidays at many bourses have contributed to the Euro's decline.

The failure of the Euro pair to defend the previous week's bounce off short-term horizontal support, coupled with impending bearish signals from the MACD indicator, suggest that the EUR/USD sellers are likely to maintain control. The pair is presently approaching a horizontal support zone that comprises multiple levels marked since April 25, near 1.0960. Afterward, the EUR/USD bears may face a challenge from a two-week-long ascending trend line near 1.0945. Till then we do not advise selling EUR/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -