Published on Mar 1, 2023

Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 01-03-2023

EUR/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for EUR/USD

Economic Events : -

GMT		Event	Currency
06:30	-	(Germany) North Rhine Westphalia CPI YoY	EUR
06:30	-	(Germany) North Rhine Westphalia CPI MoM	EUR
08:15	-	(Spain) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	EUR
08:30	-	(Austria) Unemployment Rate	EUR
08:45	-	(Italy) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	EUR
07:55	-	(Germany) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	EUR
08:55	-	(Germany) Unemployment Rate	EUR
08:55	-	(Germany) Unemployment Change	EUR
09:00	-	(Euro Area) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	EUR
09:00	-	(Germany) Baden Wuerttemberg CPI YoY	EUR
09:00	-	(Germany) Baden Wuerttemberg CPI MoM	EUR
09:00	-	(Germany) Bavaria CPI MoM	EUR
09:00	-	(Germany) Bavaria CPI YoY	EUR
09:00	-	(Germany) Brandenburg CPI MoM	EUR
09:00	-	(Germany) Brandenburg CPI YoY	EUR
09:00	-	(Germany) Hesse CPI MoM	EUR
09:00	-	(Germany) Hesse CPI YoY	EUR
09:00	-	(Greece) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	EUR
10:00	-	(Germany) Saxony CPI MoM	EUR
10:00	-	(Germany) Saxony CPI YoY	EUR
11:00	-	(Italy) Full Year GDP Growth	EUR
12:00	-	(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate	USD
13:00	-	(Germany) Inflation Rate YoY	EUR
14:45	-	(United States) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	USD
15:00	-	(United States) ISM Manufacturing Employment	USD
15:00	-	(United States) ISM Manufacturing PMI	USD
15:30	-	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change	USD
15:30	-	(United States) EIA Gasoline Stocks Change	USD

Today's Scenario : - As Wednesday's European session approaches, the EUR/USD currency pair has experienced an increase in buying interest, driving the price to reach an intraday high of approximately 1.0595. However, it's worth noting that this comes after a period of significant losses, making this a corrective bounce. In fact, the past month has seen the largest decline in the value of the major currency pair since September of last year.

If we analyze the current situation, the EUR/USD currency pair is struggling due to several factors, including the ongoing pandemic and political uncertainties in the United States. Investors are closely monitoring economic indicators and news announcements to determine the future direction of the currency pair.

Buy Scenario : - During early Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair experienced slight gains, reaching an intraday high of around 1.0580-85. This comes after the pair recorded its biggest monthly drop in five months. The market is now awaiting the first readings of Germany's key inflation number for February, specifically the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), which is expected to show a 0.7% month-on-month increase, compared to the previous 0.5%.

Despite the recent gains, the EUR/USD pair has struggled to cross the 50-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which, coupled with the decreasing bullish bias of the MACD signals, suggests a potential preference for sellers.

Even if the currency pair manages to surpass the 50-EMA hurdle near 1.0620, it may face further resistance from a downward-sloping resistance line that originated in mid-February, as well as the 200-EMA located around 1.0640 and 1.0695, respectively, which could prove to be challenging for buyers, still we do not advise to buy EUR/USD currency pair.

Sell Scenario: - It's worth noting that the 1.0765-70 horizontal area has been identified as the last line of defense for bearish traders, as it has acted as a significant resistance level since January 9th.

On the other hand, a two-month-old ascending support line around 1.0545 may limit the short-term downside of the EUR/USD pair.

If the pair were to break below this support level, the next potential targets for bearish traders could be the lows recorded in January and the previous month, at approximately 1.0530 and 1.0480, respectively.

Furthermore, the lows marked in late December 2022, around 1.0450, could provide additional downside support levels for the EUR/USD pair.

It's important to keep in mind that the foreign exchange market is subject to sudden and unpredictable changes, and traders should exercise caution when making investment decisions. Till then we do not advise selling EUR/USD.

Support and Resistance Level : -