Published on Mar 31, 2023

Daily Analysis For AUD/USD 31-03-2023

AUD/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for AUD/USD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:30	(Japan) Tokyo CPI YoY	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Tokyo Core CPI YoY	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Unemployment Rate	Medium	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Jobs/applications ratio	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Retail Sales MoM	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Retail Sales YoY	Medium	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Industrial Production YoY	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	JPY
01:00	(Malta) Freedom Day	None	EUR
01:00	(United States) Fed Waller Speech	Medium	USD
01:30	(Australia) Private Sector Credit MoM	Low	AUD
01:30	(Australia) Private Sector Credit YoY	Low	AUD
01:30	(Australia) Housing Credit MoM	Medium	AUD
02:30	(China) NBS Non Manufacturing PMI	High	CNY
02:30	(China) NBS Manufacturing PMI	High	CNY
02:30	(China) NBS General PMI	Low	CNY
05:30	(Netherlands) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
05:30	(Netherlands) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
06:00	(Japan) Construction Orders YoY	Low	JPY
06:00	(Japan) Housing Starts YoY	Medium	JPY
07:00	(Germany) Import Prices MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Import Prices YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Retail Sales YoY	High	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Retail Sales MoM	High	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) Business Investment YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Business Investment QoQ	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Current Account	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Nationwide Housing Prices YoY	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Nationwide Housing Prices MoM	Medium	GBP
07:30	(Switzerland) Retail Sales MoM	High	CHF
07:30	(Switzerland) Retail Sales YoY	High	CHF
07:45	(France) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
07:45	(France) Household Consumption MoM	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Inflation Rate YoY	High	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:55	(Germany) Unemployment Rate	High	EUR
08:55	(Germany) Unemployment Change	High	EUR
08:55	(Germany) Unemployed Persons	Medium	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Industrial Sales MoM	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Industrial Sales YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Spain) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:00	(Austria) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:30	(Portugal) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:30	(Portugal) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) CPI	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(China) Current Account	Low	CNY
10:00	(Cyprus) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Inflation Rate YoY	High	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Unemployment Rate	High	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) CPI	High	EUR
10:00	(Greece) Retail Sales YoY	High	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Inflation Rate YoY	High	EUR
10:00	(Italy) CPI	High	EUR
10:00	(Greece) Unemployment Rate	High	EUR
10:30	(Belgium) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:30	(Cyprus) Wage Growth YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Luxembourg) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Cyprus) Current Account	Low	EUR
13:30	(Canada) GDP MoM	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) GDP MoM	Medium	CAD
13:30	(United States) Personal Income MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) PCE Price Index MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) PCE Price Index YoY	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Personal Spending MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PCE Price Index MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PCE Price Index YoY	Low	USD
14:01	(Australia) CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM	Low	AUD
14:45	(United States) Chicago PMI	Medium	USD
15:00	(Belgium) Current Account	Low	EUR
15:00	(United States) Michigan Consumer Sentiment	High	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Inflation Expectations	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Consumer Expectations	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Current Conditions	Low	USD
16:00	(Euro Area) ECB President Lagarde Speech	Medium	EUR
17:00	(United States) Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat	Low	USD
17:00	(United States) Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn	Low	USD
17:00	(United States) Quarterly Grain Stocks - Soy	Low	USD
17:00	(United States) Prospective Plantings - Soy	Low	USD
17:00	(United States) Prospective Plantings - Corn	Low	USD
17:00	(United States) Prospective Plantings - Wheat	Low	USD
17:00	(United States) Prospective Plantings - Cotton	Low	USD
18:00	(El Salvador) Current Account	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	Low	USD
19:00	(El Salvador) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Low	USD
19:00	(El Salvador) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Low	USD
20:05	(United States) Fed Williams Speech	Medium	USD
22:45	(United States) Fed Cook Speech	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - The AUD/USD pair has risen above 0.6730 following better-than-expected PMI figures from China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.9, higher than the consensus of 51.5 but lower than the previous release of 52.6. The Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 58.2 from the previous release of 56.3.

The Chinese economy appears to be steadily recovering with the government implementing various monetary and non-monetary measures to boost demand and accelerate economic activity. However, investors will be closely watching Monday's Caixin Manufacturing PMI data. It's important to note that Australia is a leading trading partner of China, and an increase in economic activity could support the Australian dollar.

Buy Scenario: - The AUD/USD pair has retraced from its intraday gains and is trading around 0.6720, after hitting a weekly high of nearly 0.6740. Market participants are awaiting key US inflation data, but the pair remains within a monthly symmetrical triangle.

Earlier, the pair had risen due to upbeat Chinese PMI data and broad US Dollar weakness on the back of reduced expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve. The bullish MACD signals, along with the RSI (14) remaining above 50 and not overbought, keep the buyers optimistic.

However, the 200-day moving average and the top line of the symmetrical triangle, located around 0.6750, could pose a challenge for the AUD/USD bulls. If they manage to break above it, the pair may head towards the early February lows around 0.6855, followed by the December 2021 high of approximately 0.6895. Till we do not advise to buy AUD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - On the downside, for the AUD/USD bears to take control, the support line of the symmetrical triangle at 0.6660 needs to be breached. In that case, the pair may face resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the November 2021-February 2022 uptrend, followed by the previous February resistance line at around 0.6610 and 0.6520. Till we do not advise to sell AUD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -