Published on Apr 28, 2023

Daily Analysis For AUD/USD 28-04-2023

AUD/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for AUD/USD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:01	(United Kingdom) Car Production YoY	Low	GBP
00:30	(Japan) Unemployment Rate	Medium	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Jobs/applications ratio	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Tokyo Core CPI YoY	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Tokyo CPI YoY	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Industrial Production YoY	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Retail Sales YoY	Medium	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Retail Sales MoM	Low	JPY
01:00	(Euro Area) Eurogroup Meeting	Medium	EUR
02:30	(Australia) Private Sector Credit YoY	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Private Sector Credit MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) PPI YoY	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) PPI QoQ	Medium	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Housing Credit MoM	Medium	AUD
04:00	(Japan) BoJ Interest Rate Decision	High	JPY
04:00	(Japan) BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report	Medium	JPY
06:00	(Estonia) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
06:00	(Japan) Housing Starts YoY	Medium	JPY
06:00	(Japan) Construction Orders YoY	Low	JPY
06:30	(France) GDP Growth Rate YoY	High	EUR
06:30	(France) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	High	EUR
06:30	(France) Household Consumption MoM	Low	EUR
06:30	(Germany) North Rhine Westphalia CPI YoY	High	EUR
06:30	(Germany) North Rhine Westphalia CPI MoM	High	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Import Prices MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Import Prices YoY	Low	EUR
07:30	(Switzerland) Retail Sales MoM	High	CHF
07:30	(Switzerland) Retail Sales YoY	High	CHF
07:45	(France) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Inflation Rate YoY	High	EUR
07:45	(France) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Austria) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Spain) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Switzerland) KOF Leading Indicators	Medium	CHF
08:55	(Germany) Unemployment Rate	High	EUR
08:55	(Germany) Unemployment Change	High	EUR
08:55	(Germany) Unemployed Persons	Medium	EUR
09:00	(European Union) Informal ECOFIN Meeting	Low	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Baden Wuerttemberg CPI YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Baden Wuerttemberg CPI MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Bavaria CPI MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Bavaria CPI YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Brandenburg CPI MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Brandenburg CPI YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Hesse CPI MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Hesse CPI YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) GDP Growth Rate YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Italy) GDP Growth Rate YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Italy) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	High	EUR
09:00	(Spain) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:00	(Switzerland) SNB Jordan Speech	Low	CHF
09:30	(Portugal) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(Portugal) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) CPI	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) GDP Growth Rate YoY	High	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	High	EUR
10:00	(Germany) Saxony CPI MoM	High	EUR
10:00	(Germany) Saxony CPI YoY	High	EUR
10:00	(Greece) Retail Sales YoY	High	EUR
10:00	(Greece) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Malta) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:30	(Belgium) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Italy) Industrial Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Italy) Industrial Sales MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Luxembourg) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
13:00	(Germany) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
13:00	(Germany) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
13:00	(Germany) Inflation Rate YoY	High	EUR
13:00	(Germany) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
13:30	(Canada) GDP MoM	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) GDP MoM	Medium	CAD
13:30	(United States) Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Employment Cost - Wages QoQ	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PCE Price Index YoY	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PCE Price Index MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) PCE Price Index YoY	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) PCE Price Index MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Personal Income MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Personal Spending MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Employment Cost Index QoQ	Medium	USD
13:30	(Germany) Bundesbank Wuermeling Speech	Low	EUR
14:45	(United States) Chicago PMI	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Current Conditions	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Inflation Expectations	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Consumer Sentiment	High	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Consumer Expectations	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations	Low	USD
16:00	(Canada) Budget Balance	Low	CAD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - The AUD/USD pair experienced a slight decline after failing to maintain levels above the significant resistance of 0.6630 during the early Asian trading session. Market participants are currently anticipating the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) upcoming interest rate decision scheduled for Tuesday, which could keep the Australian currency under pressure.

On the other hand, the S&P500 index witnessed significant gains during Thursday's trading session, boosted by strong quarterly earnings performances from US technology companies. Despite concerns of an economic slowdown, Google, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms all posted solid results, and Amazon's higher-than-anticipated earnings report with strong revenue projections suggests that consumer spending will remain strong. This overall positive sentiment in the markets has increased demand for riskier assets, including the Australian dollar.

Buy Scenario: - The AUD/USD pair is trading near 0.6640 after bouncing off a six-week low. It is approaching a resistance line from early March, which is part of a previous bullish channel. However, the bearish signals from the MACD and the sluggish RSI (14) may challenge the AUD/USD bulls around the previous support level of 0.6655.

If the AUD/USD buyers manage to surpass the 0.6655 resistance level, the pair may rise towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-October 2022 downturn, near 0.6725. However, the 100-DMA and the top line of the aforementioned channel at 0.6795 and 0.6835, respectively, may pose challenges to the bulls thereafter.

Only if the AUD/USD buyers can surpass 0.6835, they can regain control. Till we do not advise to buy AUD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - On the downside, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.6595 is the immediate support, followed by the yearly low around 0.6565. If the bears manage to break below 0.6565, several levels near 0.6530-25 may offer support before giving full control to the sellers.

In summary, despite limited upside potential, the AUD/USD remains under bearish pressure. Till we do not advise to sell AUD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -