Daily Analysis For AUD/USD 28-03-2023

Daily Analysis For AUD/USD 28-03-2023

AUD/USD Analysis
AUD/USD
Economic Events and Scenario for AUD/USD
Economic Events : -
GMTEventImpactCurrency
1:30(Australia) Retail Sales MoMHighAUD
4:35(Japan) 40-Year JGB AuctionLowJPY
5:15(Australia) RBA Connolly SpeechMediumAUD
7:00(Lithuania) Retail Sales MoMLowEUR
7:00(Lithuania) Retail Sales YoYLowEUR
7:45(France) Business Climate IndicatorLowEUR
7:45(France) Business ConfidenceMediumEUR
9:00(Italy) Consumer ConfidenceMediumEUR
9:00(Italy) Business ConfidenceMediumEUR
9:35(Euro Area) ECB Enria SpeechMediumEUR
9:45(United Kingdom) BoE Gov Bailey SpeechMediumGBP
10:10(Italy) Index-Linked BTP AuctionLowEUR
10:10(Italy) BTP Short TermLowEUR
10:10(Italy) 10-Year BTP Short Term AuctionLowEUR
10:30(Germany) 2-Year Schatz AuctionLowEUR
11:00(Ireland) Retail Sales YoYLowEUR
11:00(Ireland) Retail Sales MoMLowEUR
11:00(Luxembourg) Balance of TradeLowEUR
13:30(United States) Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoMMediumUSD
13:30(United States) Goods Trade BalanceHighUSD
13:30(United States) Wholesale Inventories MoMMediumUSD
13:55(United States) Redbook YoYLowUSD
14:00(United States) House Price Index YoYLowUSD
14:00(United States) House Price IndexLowUSD
14:00(United States) S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoYMediumUSD
14:00(United States) S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoMMediumUSD
14:00(United States) House Price Index MoMLowUSD
15:00(United States) CB Consumer ConfidenceMediumUSD
15:00(United States) Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments IndexLowUSD
15:00(United States) Richmond Fed Manufacturing IndexLowUSD
15:00(United States) Richmond Fed Services IndexLowUSD
15:00(United States) Fed Barr TestimonyMediumUSD
Today's Scenario: - AUD/USD is moving higher towards 0.6700 despite weaker-than-expected growth in Australian retail sales, likely due to overall improved market sentiment. The pair is benefiting from the weakening of the US dollar and is expected to continue to do so ahead of the release of important economic data from both Australia and the US.
Buy Scenario: - On the Buying side, pullbacks are unlikely unless the pair falls below the lower end of the triangle at 0.6645. If the pair stays bearish below this level, a drop towards the monthly low of 0.6564 is possible, with the 0.6700 round figure acting as an intermediate support. While the upside momentum is strong, buyers need to validate it by breaking through the 200-EMA hurdle. Additionally, a pause in the market's risk-on mood could challenge AUD/USD buyers, in addition to the technical indicators mentioned above. Till we do not advise to buy AUD/USD.
Sell Scenario: - AUD/USD is trading near the intraday high of approximately 0.6700 as buyers and sellers struggle to break through the 100-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) in early Tuesday trading. The currency pair is moving higher within a symmetrical triangle pattern that has been in place for three weeks.
The bullish Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals favor buyers of AUD/USD, suggesting a potential break above the immediate resistance level around 0.6700 represented by the 100-EMA.
However, the 200-EMA hurdle at 0.6736 may act as an additional obstacle for buyers before they can push the bears aside.
Overall, the monthly high near 0.6785 represents the last line of defense for the AUD/USD bears. Till we do not advise to sell AUD/USD.
Support and Resistance Level: -
SupportResistance
S1 0.6634-R1 0.6666
S2 0.6618-R2 0.6682
S3 0.6602-R3 0.6698

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