Daily Analysis For AUD/USD  27-04-2023

Daily Analysis For AUD/USD 27-04-2023

AUD/USD Analysis
Economic Events and Scenario for AUD/USD
Economic Events : -
00:01(Ireland) Consumer ConfidenceLowEUR
00:50(Japan) Foreign Bond InvestmentLowJPY
00:50(Japan) Stock Investment by ForeignersLowJPY
01:00(Netherlands) King's BirthdayNoneEUR
02:00(New Zealand) ANZ Business ConfidenceMediumNZD
02:30(Australia) Export Prices QoQLowAUD
02:30(Australia) Import Prices QoQLowAUD
02:30(China) Industrial Profits (YTD) YoYLowCNY
06:00(Japan) Leading Economic IndexLowJPY
06:00(Japan) Coincident IndexLowJPY
06:00(Finland) Consumer ConfidenceLowEUR
06:00(Finland) Business ConfidenceLowEUR
07:00(Lithuania) Retail Sales MoMLowEUR
07:00(Lithuania) Retail Sales YoYLowEUR
08:00(Slovakia) Consumer ConfidenceLowEUR
08:00(Slovakia) Business ConfidenceLowEUR
08:00(Spain) Retail Sales YoYHighEUR
08:00(Spain) Unemployment RateHighEUR
08:00(Spain) Retail Sales MoMHighEUR
09:00(Italy) Consumer ConfidenceMediumEUR
09:00(Italy) Business ConfidenceMediumEUR
09:30(Portugal) Business ConfidenceLowEUR
09:30(Portugal) Consumer ConfidenceLowEUR
10:00(Euro Area) Consumer ConfidenceLowEUR
10:00(Euro Area) Industrial SentimentLowEUR
10:00(Euro Area) Services SentimentLowEUR
10:00(Euro Area) Economic SentimentMediumEUR
10:00(Euro Area) Consumer Inflation ExpectationsLowEUR
10:00(Euro area) Selling Price ExpectationsLowEUR
10:00(Montenegro) Balance of TradeLowEUR
10:00(Montenegro) Tourist Arrivals YoYLowEUR
10:00(Belgium) GDP Growth Rate QoQLowEUR
10:00(Belgium) GDP Growth Rate YoYLowEUR
10:10(Italy) 10-Year BTP AuctionLowEUR
10:10(Italy) 5-Year BTP AuctionLowEUR
10:30(Belgium) Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
10:30(Belgium) Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
10:30(Cyprus) Industrial Production YoYLowEUR
11:00(Latvia) Retail Sales MoMLowEUR
11:00(Latvia) Retail Sales YoYLowEUR
11:00(Latvia) GDP Growth Rate QoQLowEUR
11:00(Latvia) GDP Growth Rate YoYLowEUR
12:00(Spain) Business ConfidenceMediumEUR
12:00(Canada) CFIB Business BarometerLowCAD
13:30(United States) Initial Jobless ClaimsHighUSD
13:30(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week AverageHighUSD
13:30(United States) Continuing Jobless ClaimsHighUSD
13:30(United States) Real Consumer Spending QoQLowUSD
13:30(United States) Core PCE Prices QoQLowUSD
13:30(United States) GDP Sales QoQLowUSD
13:30(United States) PCE Prices QoQLowUSD
13:30(United States) GDP Price Index QoQMediumUSD
13:30(United States) GDP Growth Rate QoQHighUSD
13:30(Canada) Average Weekly Earnings YoYLowCAD
15:00(United States) Pending Home Sales MoMMediumUSD
15:00(United States) Pending Home Sales YoYMediumUSD
15:01(Australia) CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoMLowAUD
15:30(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks ChangeLowUSD
16:00(United States) Kansas Fed Composite IndexLowUSD
16:00(United States) Kansas Fed Manufacturing IndexLowUSD
16:30(United States) 8-Week Bill AuctionLowUSD
16:30(United States) 4-Week Bill AuctionLowUSD
17:15(Euro Area) ECB Panetta SpeechLowEUR
18:00(United States) 7-Year Note AuctionLowUSD
22:00(New Zealand) ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer ConfidenceLowNZD

Today's Scenario: - The AUD/USD currency pair is currently trading around 0.6610, showing slight buying interest but remaining defensive due to caution in the market ahead of the European session on Thursday. The pair has struggled to continue its previous rebound from a 1.5-month low. The mixed sentiment in the market and varied inflation signals in Australia are contributing to this lack of momentum. Traders are waiting for the release of the US first quarter (Q1) Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is expected to decrease to an annualized rate of 2.0% from the previous 2.6%.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) recently released the Q1 Export and Import Price Index data, but it failed to improve the dovish sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) following the soft CPI data released the previous day. The Export Price Index for Q1 2023 increased by 1.6% QoQ compared to the previous -0.9%, but it was below the market forecast of 1.9%. Meanwhile, the Import Price Index declined by -4.2%, which was lower than the market expectation of 3.6% and the previous figure of 1.8%.

Buy Scenario: - On the buying side of AUD/USD, if the pair can decisively break above the key resistance level of 0.6800, it could drive the asset higher towards the February 23 high of 0.6872, and then to the February 20 high of 0.6920. Till we do not advise to buy AUD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - The AUD/USD pair is currently experiencing a bearish trend after breaking down from an Inverted Flag chart pattern on the daily scale. This chart pattern indicates a continuation of the trend, in which a long consolidation period is followed by a breakdown.
The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 0.6680 is acting as a resistance level for buyers.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has fallen into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, indicating that downside momentum is building.
If the AUD/USD pair drops below the low of March 15 at 0.6590, it could trigger a rally in the US Dollar, exposing the asset to March 08 low at 0.6568, followed by the high of November 02, 2022, at around 0.6500. Till we do not advise to sell AUD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -
S1 0.6582-R1 0.6630
S2 0.6563-R2 0.6658
S3 0.6534-R3 0.6677


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