Published on Apr 27, 2023

Daily Analysis For AUD/USD 27-04-2023

AUD/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for AUD/USD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:01	(Ireland) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
00:50	(Japan) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners	Low	JPY
01:00	(Netherlands) King's Birthday	None	EUR
02:00	(New Zealand) ANZ Business Confidence	Medium	NZD
02:30	(Australia) Export Prices QoQ	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Import Prices QoQ	Low	AUD
02:30	(China) Industrial Profits (YTD) YoY	Low	CNY
06:00	(Japan) Leading Economic Index	Low	JPY
06:00	(Japan) Coincident Index	Low	JPY
06:00	(Finland) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Retail Sales YoY	High	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Unemployment Rate	High	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Retail Sales MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Business Confidence	Medium	EUR
09:30	(Portugal) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
09:30	(Portugal) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Industrial Sentiment	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Services Sentiment	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Economic Sentiment	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Consumer Inflation Expectations	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro area) Selling Price Expectations	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Tourist Arrivals YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Belgium) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Low	EUR
10:00	(Belgium) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 10-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 5-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:30	(Belgium) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:30	(Belgium) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:30	(Cyprus) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Low	EUR
12:00	(Spain) Business Confidence	Medium	EUR
12:00	(Canada) CFIB Business Barometer	Low	CAD
13:30	(United States) Initial Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Continuing Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Real Consumer Spending QoQ	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PCE Prices QoQ	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) GDP Sales QoQ	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) PCE Prices QoQ	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) GDP Price Index QoQ	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	High	USD
13:30	(Canada) Average Weekly Earnings YoY	Low	CAD
15:00	(United States) Pending Home Sales MoM	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Pending Home Sales YoY	Medium	USD
15:01	(Australia) CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM	Low	AUD
15:30	(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change	Low	USD
16:00	(United States) Kansas Fed Composite Index	Low	USD
16:00	(United States) Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 8-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 4-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:15	(Euro Area) ECB Panetta Speech	Low	EUR
18:00	(United States) 7-Year Note Auction	Low	USD
22:00	(New Zealand) ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence	Low	NZD

Today's Scenario: - The AUD/USD currency pair is currently trading around 0.6610, showing slight buying interest but remaining defensive due to caution in the market ahead of the European session on Thursday. The pair has struggled to continue its previous rebound from a 1.5-month low. The mixed sentiment in the market and varied inflation signals in Australia are contributing to this lack of momentum. Traders are waiting for the release of the US first quarter (Q1) Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is expected to decrease to an annualized rate of 2.0% from the previous 2.6%.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) recently released the Q1 Export and Import Price Index data, but it failed to improve the dovish sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) following the soft CPI data released the previous day. The Export Price Index for Q1 2023 increased by 1.6% QoQ compared to the previous -0.9%, but it was below the market forecast of 1.9%. Meanwhile, the Import Price Index declined by -4.2%, which was lower than the market expectation of 3.6% and the previous figure of 1.8%.

Buy Scenario: - On the buying side of AUD/USD, if the pair can decisively break above the key resistance level of 0.6800, it could drive the asset higher towards the February 23 high of 0.6872, and then to the February 20 high of 0.6920. Till we do not advise to buy AUD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - The AUD/USD pair is currently experiencing a bearish trend after breaking down from an Inverted Flag chart pattern on the daily scale. This chart pattern indicates a continuation of the trend, in which a long consolidation period is followed by a breakdown.

The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 0.6680 is acting as a resistance level for buyers.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has fallen into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, indicating that downside momentum is building.

If the AUD/USD pair drops below the low of March 15 at 0.6590, it could trigger a rally in the US Dollar, exposing the asset to March 08 low at 0.6568, followed by the high of November 02, 2022, at around 0.6500. Till we do not advise to sell AUD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -