Published on Mar 27, 2023

Daily Analysis For AUD/USD 27-03-2023

AUD/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for AUD/USD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
2:30	(China) Industrial Profits (YTD) YoY	Low	CNY
6:00	(Finland) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
6:00	(Finland) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
6:00	(Japan) Leading Economic Index	Low	JPY
6:00	(Japan) Coincident Index	Low	JPY
9:00	(Germany) Ifo Current Conditions	Low	EUR
9:00	(Germany) Ifo Business Climate	High	EUR
9:00	(Germany) Ifo Expectations	Low	EUR
9:00	(Euro Area) Loans to Companies YoY	Low	EUR
9:00	(Euro Area) M3 Money Supply YoY	Low	EUR
9:00	(Euro Area) Loans to Households YoY	Low	EUR
9:00	(Australia) Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment	Medium	AUD
9:00	(Switzerland) Myfxbook USDCHF Sentiment	Medium	CHF
9:00	(Japan) Myfxbook USDJPY Sentiment	Medium	JPY
9:00	(European Union) Myfxbook EURUSD Sentiment	Medium	EUR
9:00	(United Kingdom) Myfxbook GBPUSD Sentiment	Medium	GBP
9:00	(Canada) Myfxbook USDCAD Sentiment	Medium	CAD
9:00	(New Zealand) Myfxbook NZDUSD Sentiment	Medium	NZD
11:00	(United Kingdom) CBI Distributive Trades	Medium	GBP
11:00	(France) Jobseekers Total	Low	EUR
11:00	(France) Unemployment Benefit Claims	Medium	EUR
11:00	(Greece) Total Credit YoY	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 3-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 12-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 6-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
15:30	(United States) Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index	Medium	USD
15:40	(Euro Area) ECB Elderson Speech	Medium	EUR
16:00	(Euro Area) ECB Schnabel Speech	Medium	EUR
16:30	(United States) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) 2-Year Note Auction	Low	USD
18:00	(United Kingdom) BoE Gov Bailey Speech	Medium	GBP
22:00	(United States) Fed Jefferson Speech	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - The AUD/USD pair initially showed signs of recovery, reaching near 0.6660 during the early European trading session. However, the pair faced significant selling pressure due to the strengthening of the US Dollar Index (DXY). The Australian Dollar is expected to remain active in the near future, particularly ahead of the upcoming release of the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which is scheduled for Wednesday.

Buy Scenario: - If AUD/USD pair's immediate recovery attempts could face resistance at the 100-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA) located near 0.6670. This level is located just before the lower line of the aforementioned wedge pattern, which is around 0.6680.

If the AUD/USD pair manages to surpass the 0.6680 level, it may face further resistance at the upper line of the wedge pattern and the 200-SMA, which are respectively near 0.6750 and 0.6760, thus making it difficult for the bulls to take control.

It is important to note that the monthly high of approximately 0.6785 acts as a crucial resistance level for the bears to defend. Till we do not advise to buy AUD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - The AUD/USD pair is struggling to maintain its position around 0.6650 during Monday's sluggish trading session, following a volatile week. The pair has experienced a weekly loss and lacks the momentum to extend the corrective bounce from late Friday's one-week low.

It's important to note that the AUD/USD pair has confirmed a bearish chart formation of a rising wedge that's been present for two weeks. This, combined with bearish MACD signals and a downbeat RSI (14), not yet in oversold territory, keeps sellers optimistic.

Intraday sellers of the Aussie pair are attracted to the recent trough around 0.6625, followed by the monthly low of 0.6564. After that, the theoretical target of the rising wedge confirmation, around 0.6650, and the October 2022 peak of nearly 0.6645, provide strong support for the sellers. Till we do not advise to sell AUD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -