Daily Analysis For AUD/USD 26-04-2023

Daily Analysis For AUD/USD 26-04-2023

AUD/USD Analysis
AUD/USD
Economic Events and Scenario for AUD/USD
Economic Events : -
GMTEventImpactCurrency
02:30(Australia) RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQHighAUD
02:30(Australia) RBA Weighted Median CPI YoYHighAUD
02:30(Australia) RBA Weighted Median CPI QoQHighAUD
02:30(Australia) Inflation Rate QoQMediumAUD
02:30(Australia) Inflation Rate YoYHighAUD
02:30(Australia) RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoYHighAUD
02:30(Australia) CPIHighAUD
02:30(Australia) Monthly CPI IndicatorHighAUD
04:00(New Zealand) Credit Card Spending YoYLowNZD
04:35(Japan) 2-Year JGB AuctionLowJPY
05:30(Netherlands) Retail Sales YoYLowEUR
06:00(Finland) Unemployment RateLowEUR
07:00(Germany) GfK Consumer ConfidenceHighEUR
07:45(France) Consumer ConfidenceMediumEUR
08:30(Euro Area) ECB Enria SpeechLowEUR
09:00(Austria) Bank Austria Manufacturing PMIHighEUR
09:00(Switzerland) Economic Sentiment IndexLowCHF
09:30(United Kingdom) Labour Productivity QoQLowGBP
09:30(Slovenia) Retail Sales YoYLowEUR
09:30(Slovenia) Retail Sales MoMLowEUR
10:10(Italy) 6-Month BOT AuctionLowEUR
10:20(Euro Area) ECB Jochnick SpeechLowEUR
10:30(Germany) 15-Year Bund AuctionLowEUR
11:00(Luxembourg) Balance of TradeLowEUR
11:00(France) Jobseekers TotalLowEUR
11:00(France) Unemployment Benefit ClaimsMediumEUR
11:00(United Kingdom) CBI Distributive TradesMediumGBP
12:00(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage RateMediumUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Mortgage ApplicationsLowUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance IndexLowUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Mortgage Market IndexLowUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Purchase IndexLowUSD
13:00(Euro Area) ECB Guindos SpeechHighEUR
13:30(Canada) Manufacturing Sales MoMLowCAD
13:30(United States) Wholesale Inventories MoMMediumUSD
13:30(United States) Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoMMediumUSD
13:30(United States) Goods Trade BalanceHighUSD
13:30(United States) Non Defense Goods Orders Ex AirLowUSD
13:30(United States) Durable Goods Orders MoMHighUSD
13:30(United States) Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoMHighUSD
13:30(United States) Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoMHighUSD
14:45(Euro Area) ECB Tuominen SpeechLowEUR
15:30(United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks ChangeMediumUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Distillate Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Gasoline Production ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Crude Oil Imports ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Gasoline Stocks ChangeMediumUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Distillate Fuel Production ChangeLowUSD
16:30(United States) 2-Year FRN AuctionLowUSD
16:30(United States) 17-Week Bill AuctionLowUSD
17:00(Canada) 30-Year Bond AuctionLowCAD
18:00(United States) 5-Year Note AuctionLowUSD
18:30(Canada) BoC Summary of DeliberationsMediumCAD
Today's Scenario: - The AUD/USD pair has dropped to a six-week low following mostly negative inflation data from Australia. The pair initially fell to 0.6611 before recovering slightly to 0.6630, as traders remain cautious ahead of the release of the US Durable Goods Orders for March. Australia's Monthly CPI for March dropped to 6.1% YoY, lower than the expected 6.6% and the previous 6.8%, indicating a reduction in inflation pressure due to higher rates. In addition, Q1 CPI eased to 1.4% QoQ from the previous reading of 1.9%, but still exceeded the market forecast of 1.3%. The RBA Trimmed Mean CPI also fell below the consensus and the previous reading to 1.2% QoQ in Q1.
Buy Scenario: - The AUD/USD pair needs to surpass the pivot level of $0.6648 to aim for the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.6683. A return to the level of $0.6650 would suggest a bullish trading session. However, for a breakout session to occur, the Australian inflation figures need to support it before the US session.
If a breakout session does occur, the AUD/USD pair would probably test resistance at the high from Tuesday at $0.67055 but may fall short of the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.6740. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.6831. Till we do not advise to buy AUD/USD.
Sell Scenario: - If the pair fails to move past the pivot level, it would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.6591 in play. Nevertheless, unless there is another sell-off caused by a risk-off sentiment, the AUD/USD pair should avoid falling to the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.6557. Till we do not advise to sell AUD/USD.
Support and Resistance Level: -
SupportResistance
S1 0.6592-R1 0.6683
S2 0.6558-R2 0.6740
S3 0.6501-R3 0.6774

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