Published on Apr 25, 2023

Daily Analysis For AUD/USD 25-04-2023

AUD/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for AUD/USD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
01:00	(Australia) ANZAC Day	None	AUD
01:00	(Italy) Liberation Day	None	EUR
01:00	(New Zealand) ANZAC Day	None	NZD
01:00	(Portugal) Liberty Day	None	EUR
03:45	(East Timor) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	USD
03:45	(East Timor) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	USD
07:00	(Switzerland) Balance of Trade	Medium	CHF
07:00	(United Kingdom) Public Sector Net Borrowing	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks	Low	GBP
08:00	(Spain) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) ECB Enria Speech	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Tourist Arrivals YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(United Kingdom) BoE Member Broadbent	Low	GBP
10:30	(Germany) 2-Year Schatz Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Luxembourg) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
11:00	(United Kingdom) CBI Industrial Trends Orders	Medium	GBP
11:00	(United Kingdom) CBI Business Optimism Index	Medium	GBP
13:00	(United States) Building Permits	Medium	USD
13:00	(United States) Building Permits MoM	Low	USD
13:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
14:00	(United States) House Price Index	Low	USD
14:00	(United States) House Price Index YoY	Low	USD
14:00	(United States) House Price Index MoM	Low	USD
14:00	(United States) S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM	Medium	USD
14:00	(United States) S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) CB Consumer Confidence	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Richmond Fed Services Index	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) New Home Sales	High	USD
15:00	(United States) New Home Sales MoM	High	USD
15:30	(United States) Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) Dallas Fed Services Index	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) NY Fed Treasury Purchases 4.5 to 7 yrs	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) 2-Year Note Auction	Low	USD
21:30	(United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	USD
23:45	(New Zealand) Imports	Low	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Exports	Low	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Balance of Trade	Medium	NZD

Today's Scenario: - The AUD/USD pair is currently trading near its intraday low around 0.6680, as market sentiment turns negative on Tuesday. The pair has retraced from a two-week low reached on the previous day, but the renewed selling pressure suggests that the corrective bounce may have been short-lived.

The risk aversion seems to be driven by the looming debt ceiling expiration in the US in June, which is causing uncertainty among investors. Furthermore, traders are preparing for the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) last rate hike, which is expected to be worth 0.25%, in May before signaling a policy shift.

Buy Scenario: - The AUD/USD pair needs to stay above the pivot point at $0.6686 to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.6707. If the pair breaks through the morning high at $0.67002, it would signal a bullish session. The Aussie Dollar would require risk-on sentiment to support a breakout before the US session.

In the event of a breakout, the AUD/USD pair would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.6719, followed by resistance at $0.6750. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.6751. Till we do not advise to buy AUD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - If the pair falls below the pivot, the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.6675 comes into play. However, unless there is a risk-off-fueled sell-off, the AUD/USD pair should avoid dropping below $0.6650. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.6654 is expected to limit the downside. Till we do not advise to sell AUD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -