Published on May 23, 2023

Daily Analysis For AUD/USD 23-05-2023

AUD/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for AUD/USD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Composite PMI	Low	AUD
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI	High	AUD
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Services PMI	High	AUD
01:00	(Montenegro) Independence Day	None	EUR
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	Medium	JPY
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Services PMI	Medium	JPY
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Composite PMI	Low	JPY
07:00	(Lithuania) Industrial Production MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) Public Sector Net Borrowing	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks	Low	GBP
08:00	(Slovakia) Current Account	Low	EUR
08:15	(France) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:15	(France) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	Medium	EUR
08:15	(France) S&P Global Services PMI	Medium	EUR
08:15	(Euro Area) ECB Guindos Speech	High	EUR
08:15	(Euro Area) ECB Jochnick Speech	Low	EUR
08:30	(Germany) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:30	(Germany) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
08:30	(Germany) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) Current Account s.a	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI	High	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI	High	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI	Low	GBP
10:00	(Italy) Current Account	Low	EUR
10:00	(United Kingdom) 28-Year Index-Linked Treasury Gilt Auction	Low	GBP
10:30	(Germany) 2-Year Schatz Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
11:25	(Euro Area) ECB Enria Speech	Low	EUR
13:00	(United States) Building Permits	Medium	USD
13:00	(United States) Building Permits MoM	Low	USD
13:30	(Canada) Raw Materials Prices YoY	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Raw Materials Prices MoM	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) PPI YoY	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) PPI MoM	Low	CAD
13:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
14:00	(United States) Fed Logan Speech	Medium	USD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Services PMI	High	USD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Composite PMI	Medium	USD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	USD
15:00	(United States) Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) New Home Sales MoM	High	USD
15:00	(United States) Richmond Fed Services Index	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) New Home Sales	High	USD
15:00	(United States) Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index	Low	USD
15:30	(Slovenia) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
18:00	(United States) 2-Year Note Auction	Low	USD
20:00	(El Salvador) Balance of Trade	Low	USD
21:30	(United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	USD
23:45	(New Zealand) Retail Sales YoY	High	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Retail Sales QoQ	High	NZD

Today's Scenario: - AUD/USD is displaying a lackluster performance early on Tuesday, following a slow start to the week. The pair is experiencing selling pressure, causing a reversal from its intraday low during the mid-Asian session, and is currently recording slight losses around 0.6650.

This decline can be attributed to the stronger US Dollar, which is gaining strength amidst hopes of averting a US default. Despite the recent negotiations between US President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, no deal has been reached to prevent the debt ceiling from expiring. As a result, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is grinding higher and is currently hovering around 103.30, continuing its upward trend over the past two days.

Buy Scenario: - UD/USD has formed an Inverted Head and Shoulder chart pattern, suggesting a potential bullish reversal following a prolonged consolidation phase. The pair is expected to experience a significant upward movement once it breaks above the neckline, which is drawn from the high of May 17 at 0.6690.

Currently, the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6650 is acting as support for the bullish momentum of the Australian Dollar.

Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is attempting to shift into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which could trigger a bullish momentum in the pair.

If AUD/USD confidently surpasses the neckline resistance at 0.6690, it is likely to propel the Australian Dollar higher towards the psychological resistance level at 0.6800, followed by the low from February 6 at 0.6855. Till we do not advise to buy AUD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - However, in an alternative scenario, if the US Dollar gains strength, the AUD/USD pair could face downward pressure if it falls below the low from March 15 at 0.6590. In such a case, further downside targets would include the low from March 8 at 0.6568, followed by the high from November 2, 2022, around 0.6500. Till we do not advise to sell AUD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -