Published on Mar 23, 2023

Daily Analysis For AUD/USD 23-03-2023

AUD/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for AUD/USD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
07:00	(Lithuania) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Industrial Production MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(European Union) European Council Meeting	Medium	EUR
08:30	(Switzerland) SNB Interest Rate Decision	Medium	CHF
09:00	(Greece) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
11:30	(Germany) Bundesbank Balz Speech	Low	EUR
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE Interest Rate Decision	High	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) MPC Meeting Minutes	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE MPC Vote Hike	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE MPC Vote Unchanged	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE MPC Vote Cut	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United States) Building Permits	Medium	USD
12:00	(United States) Building Permits MoM	Low	USD
12:00	(Germany) undesbank Wuermeling Speech	Low	EUR
12:30	(United States) Current Account	Medium	USD
12:30	(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average	High	USD
12:30	(United States) Continuing Jobless Claims	High	USD
12:30	(United States) Initial Jobless Claims	High	USD
12:30	(United States) Chicago Fed National Activity Index	Medium	USD
14:00	(United States) New Home Sales MoM	High	USD
14:00	(United States) New Home Sales	High	USD
14:30	(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:00	(Euro Area) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
15:00	(United States) Kansas Fed Composite Index	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index	Low	USD
15:00	(United Kingdom) BoE L Mann Speech	Medium	GBP
15:00	(Euro Area) ECB Lane Speech	Low	EUR
15:30	(United States) 8-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) 4-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:00	(United States) 10-Year TIPS Auction	Low	USD
22:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI	High	AUD
22:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Services PMI	High	AUD
22:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Composite PMI	Low	AUD
23:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY	Low	JPY
23:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate YoY	High	JPY
23:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	JPY
23:30	(Japan) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	JPY
23:50	(Japan) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	JPY
23:50	(Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners	Low	JPY

Today's Scenario: - AUD/USD has risen above 0.6700 and reached its highest level in almost two weeks following the Federal Reserve's decision to increase rates by 25bps, in line with expectations. The Fed's dovish stance, coupled with a decline in US Treasury bond yields, has weakened the US dollar and supported the Australian dollar's rally.

Buy Scenario: - AUD/USD continues to climb towards the intraday high of around 0.6730 during early Thursday in Europe, despite trading within a two-week-old rising wedge chart pattern. The pair has broken above a key resistance line from early February around 0.6620 and has an upbeat RSI (14) line, which supports further buying. However, the upper line of the wedge, which is around 0.6760, may pose a challenge to the AUD/USD pair's immediate upside. Even if the pair manages to break through this level, the 200-SMA level of 0.6775 could prove to be a hurdle for buyers before they can take control. Till we do not advise to buy AUD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - The AUD/USD pair is currently trading higher above 0.6700, reaching its highest level in nearly two weeks after the Fed's rate hike decision. However, the pair is currently trading within a two-week rising wedge chart pattern, which could limit its upside potential.

If the pair manages to break above the top line of the wedge near 0.6760, it could face resistance at the 200-SMA level of 0.6775. On the other hand, if the pair declines, it could find support at the convergence of the 100-SMA and 50-SMA around 0.6675.

Further support levels could be found at the lower line of the wedge and the previous resistance level at 0.6660 and 0.6620, respectively. A sustained break below 0.6660 could confirm the bearish pattern, with a theoretical target of 0.6460. Overall, the AUD/USD pair is expected to remain firm, but its upside potential could be limited. Till we do not advise to sell AUD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -