Published on Apr 21, 2023

Daily Analysis For AUD/USD 21-04-2023

AUD/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for AUD/USD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Services PMI	High	AUD
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI	High	AUD
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Composite PMI	Low	AUD
00:01	(United Kingdom) Gfk Consumer Confidence	High	GBP
00:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate YoY	High	JPY
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Composite PMI	Low	JPY
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Services PMI	Medium	JPY
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	Medium	JPY
05:00	(Japan) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	JPY
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales MoM	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales YoY	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY	High	GBP
08:00	(Euro Area) ECB Guindos Speech	High	EUR
08:15	(France) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:15	(France) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	Medium	EUR
08:15	(France) S&P Global Services PMI	Medium	EUR
08:30	(Germany) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:30	(Germany) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
08:30	(Germany) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI	Low	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI	High	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI	High	GBP
10:00	(Euro Area) Government Debt to GDP	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Government Budget to GDP	Medium	EUR
10:10	(Italy) Index-Linked BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) BTP Short Term	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Wholesale Prices MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Wholesale Prices YoY	Low	EUR
13:00	(Kosovo) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
13:30	(Canada) Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM	High	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Retail Sales YoY	High	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Retail Sales MoM	High	CAD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	USD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Composite PMI	Medium	USD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Services PMI	High	USD
15:30	(Slovenia) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
15:30	(Euro Area) ECB Elderson Speech	Low	EUR
18:00	(El Salvador) Balance of Trade	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	Low	USD
18:45	(Euro Area) ECB Guindos Speech	High	EUR
21:35	(United States) Fed Cook Speech	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - The AUD/USD pair is currently trading sideways within a narrow range near the key resistance level of 0.6700 during the early European session. The Australian Dollar is consolidating after a slight correction move. As anticipated, there was no significant movement in the AUD following the announcement of the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) interest rate decision.

In the Asian session, S&P500 futures are continuously experiencing losses due to missed earnings from Netflix, which has weighed on market sentiment. Investors are concerned that companies will provide poor revenue guidance as a result of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rising interest rates, and US banks are becoming extremely cautious about loan disbursement to maintain asset quality. These events are contributing to a slowdown in the US economy, as businesses are expected to face significant impacts from the liquidity crisis.

Buy Scenario: - To move higher, the AUD/USD pair must avoid the pivot level of $0.6737 and aim for the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.6776. A move above the Thursday high of $0.67717 would indicate a bullish session, but it would require positive market sentiment to support a breakout before the US session.

If the AUD/USD continues to rise, it could test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.6811. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) is at $0.6886. Till we do not advise to buy AUD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - However, if the pair falls below the pivot level, the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.6702 could come into play. Nevertheless, unless there is a risk-off scenario causing a sell-off, the AUD/USD pair should avoid the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.6662. Till we do not advise to sell AUD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -