Daily Analysis For AUD/USD  20-04-2023

Daily Analysis For AUD/USD 20-04-2023

AUD/USD Analysis
Economic Events and Scenario for AUD/USD
Economic Events : -
00:50(Japan) Foreign Bond InvestmentLowJPY
00:50(Japan) Stock Investment by ForeignersLowJPY
00:50(Japan) Imports YoYLowJPY
00:50(Japan) Exports YoYMediumJPY
00:50(Japan) Balance of TradeHighJPY
02:15(China) Loan Prime Rate 1YMediumCNY
02:15(China) Loan Prime Rate 5YMediumCNY
04:35(Japan) 20-Year JGB AuctionLowJPY
05:30(Japan) Tertiary Industry Index MoMLowJPY
05:30(Netherlands) Unemployment RateMediumEUR
05:30(Netherlands) Consumer ConfidenceMediumEUR
06:00(Estonia) PPI YoYLowEUR
06:00(Estonia) PPI MoMLowEUR
07:00(Germany) PPI YoYLowEUR
07:00(Germany) PPI MoMMediumEUR
07:45(France) Business Climate IndicatorLowEUR
07:45(France) Business ConfidenceMediumEUR
09:00(Greece) Current AccountLowEUR
09:00(Spain) Balance of TradeMediumEUR
09:40(Spain) 7-Year Obligacion AuctionLowEUR
09:40(Spain) 10-Year Obligacion AuctionLowEUR
10:00(China) FDI (YTD) YoYMediumCNY
10:00(Euro Area) Balance of TradeMediumEUR
10:00(Belgium) Consumer ConfidenceLowEUR
10:00(France) 5-Year BTAN AuctionLowEUR
10:00(France) 3-Year BTAN AuctionLowEUR
11:00(France) 10-Year Index-Linked OAT AuctionLowEUR
11:00(Luxembourg) Unemployment RateLowEUR
11:00(Portugal) PPI YoYLowEUR
11:00(Portugal) PPI MoMLowEUR
12:30(Euro Area) ECB Monetary Policy Meeting AccountsMediumEUR
13:30(United States) Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing IndexMediumUSD
13:30(United States) Philly Fed Business ConditionsLowUSD
13:30(United States) Philly Fed EmploymentLowUSD
13:30(United States) Philly Fed CAPEX IndexLowUSD
13:30(United States) Philly Fed Prices PaidLowUSD
13:30(United States) Philly Fed New OrdersLowUSD
13:30(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week AverageHighUSD
13:30(United States) Continuing Jobless ClaimsHighUSD
13:30(United States) Initial Jobless ClaimsHighUSD
15:00(Euro Area) Consumer ConfidenceMediumEUR
15:00(United States) Existing Home Sales MoMHighUSD
15:00(United States) Existing Home SalesHighUSD
15:00(United States) CB Leading Index MoMLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks ChangeLowUSD
16:30(United States) 8-Week Bill AuctionLowUSD
16:30(United States) 4-Week Bill AuctionLowUSD
17:00(United States) Fed Waller SpeechMediumUSD
18:00(United States) 5-Year TIPS AuctionLowUSD
20:00(United States) Fed Bowman SpeechMediumUSD
21:15(Euro Area) ECB Schnabel SpeechLowEUR

Today's Scenario: - The AUD/USD pair has dropped below the 0.6700 level early on Thursday, following a break of short-term key support the previous day. The pair is being influenced by weak Australian data, which is contributing to a risk-off sentiment in the market. Despite this, the latest action from the People’s Bank of China and RBA Governor Philip Lowe is having little impact on the pair.
National Australia Bank's Business Confidence for Q1 2023 came in at -4, missing expectations of 2 and down from the previous reading of -1.
The PBOC held its one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged at 3.65% and 4.30%, respectively, matching market expectations.
Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers and RBA Governor Lowe announced a review of the RBA and signaled fewer meetings, but this failed to trigger any major market reaction. Traders are more focused on inflation and geopolitical headlines amid the broader risk-off sentiment.

Buy Scenario: - The AUD/USD pair needs to surpass the pivot point of $0.6715 to aim for the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.6739, followed by the Wednesday high of $0.67414. The bullish session could be confirmed if the AUD/USD returns to $0.6720. However, it also requires a risk-on sentiment to support a pre-US session breakout.
If there is another breakout session, the pair would probably test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.6766. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) is at $0.6817. Till we do not advise to buy AUD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - On the other hand, failing to surpass the pivot would mean that the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.6688 remains a possible target. Nevertheless, unless there is a risk-off-fueled sell-off, the AUD/USD pair is expected to avoid dropping below $0.6650. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.6663 is a significant support level. Till we do not advise to sell AUD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -
S1 0.6689-R1 0.6740
S2 0.6664-R2 0.6766
S3 0.6637-R3 0.6791


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