Published on Apr 20, 2023

Daily Analysis For AUD/USD 20-04-2023

AUD/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for AUD/USD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:50	(Japan) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Imports YoY	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Exports YoY	Medium	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Balance of Trade	High	JPY
02:15	(China) Loan Prime Rate 1Y	Medium	CNY
02:15	(China) Loan Prime Rate 5Y	Medium	CNY
04:35	(Japan) 20-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
05:30	(Japan) Tertiary Industry Index MoM	Low	JPY
05:30	(Netherlands) Unemployment Rate	Medium	EUR
05:30	(Netherlands) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) PPI MoM	Medium	EUR
07:45	(France) Business Climate Indicator	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Business Confidence	Medium	EUR
09:00	(Greece) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:00	(Spain) Balance of Trade	Medium	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 7-Year Obligacion Auction	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 10-Year Obligacion Auction	Low	EUR
10:00	(China) FDI (YTD) YoY	Medium	CNY
10:00	(Euro Area) Balance of Trade	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Belgium) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
10:00	(France) 5-Year BTAN Auction	Low	EUR
10:00	(France) 3-Year BTAN Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(France) 10-Year Index-Linked OAT Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Luxembourg) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
12:30	(Euro Area) ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts	Medium	EUR
13:30	(United States) Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Philly Fed Business Conditions	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Philly Fed Employment	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Philly Fed CAPEX Index	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Philly Fed Prices Paid	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Philly Fed New Orders	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Continuing Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Initial Jobless Claims	High	USD
15:00	(Euro Area) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
15:00	(United States) Existing Home Sales MoM	High	USD
15:00	(United States) Existing Home Sales	High	USD
15:00	(United States) CB Leading Index MoM	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 8-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 4-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:00	(United States) Fed Waller Speech	Medium	USD
18:00	(United States) 5-Year TIPS Auction	Low	USD
20:00	(United States) Fed Bowman Speech	Medium	USD
21:15	(Euro Area) ECB Schnabel Speech	Low	EUR

Today's Scenario: - The AUD/USD pair has dropped below the 0.6700 level early on Thursday, following a break of short-term key support the previous day. The pair is being influenced by weak Australian data, which is contributing to a risk-off sentiment in the market. Despite this, the latest action from the People’s Bank of China and RBA Governor Philip Lowe is having little impact on the pair.

National Australia Bank's Business Confidence for Q1 2023 came in at -4, missing expectations of 2 and down from the previous reading of -1.

The PBOC held its one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged at 3.65% and 4.30%, respectively, matching market expectations.

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers and RBA Governor Lowe announced a review of the RBA and signaled fewer meetings, but this failed to trigger any major market reaction. Traders are more focused on inflation and geopolitical headlines amid the broader risk-off sentiment.

Buy Scenario: - The AUD/USD pair needs to surpass the pivot point of $0.6715 to aim for the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.6739, followed by the Wednesday high of $0.67414. The bullish session could be confirmed if the AUD/USD returns to $0.6720. However, it also requires a risk-on sentiment to support a pre-US session breakout.

If there is another breakout session, the pair would probably test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.6766. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) is at $0.6817. Till we do not advise to buy AUD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - On the other hand, failing to surpass the pivot would mean that the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.6688 remains a possible target. Nevertheless, unless there is a risk-off-fueled sell-off, the AUD/USD pair is expected to avoid dropping below $0.6650. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.6663 is a significant support level. Till we do not advise to sell AUD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -