Published on May 19, 2023

Daily Analysis For AUD/USD 19-05-2023

AUD/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for AUD/USD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:01	(United Kingdom) Gfk Consumer Confidence	High	GBP
00:30	(Japan) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate YoY	High	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY	Low	JPY
01:00	(Belgium) Friday after Ascension Day	None	EUR
04:00	(New Zealand) Credit Card Spending YoY	Low	NZD
04:35	(Japan) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	JPY
05:30	(Japan) Tertiary Industry Index MoM	Low	JPY
07:00	(Germany) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) PPI MoM	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:00	(Greece) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Slovakia) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
11:00	(Spain) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
12:00	(Montenegro) Current Account	Low	EUR
13:30	(Canada) Retail Sales YoY	High	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM	High	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Retail Sales MoM	High	CAD
13:45	(United States) Fed Williams Speech	Medium	USD
14:00	(United States) Fed Bowman Speech	Medium	USD
15:55	(Euro Area) ECB Schnabel Speech	Medium	EUR
16:00	(United States) Fed Chair Powell Speech	High	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	Low	USD
20:00	(Euro Area) ECB President Lagarde Speech	Medium	EUR

Today's Scenario: - During the early Asian session, the AUD/USD pair has continued its recovery and moved above the 0.6650 level. The Australian dollar has successfully extended its rebound, benefiting from a slowdown in the upward momentum of the US Dollar Index (DXY).

Buy Scenario: - Despite a slight increase in bids during early Friday trading, the AUD/USD pair remains defensive near 0.6630. It is currently contending with a descending resistance line that has been in place for one week, within the confines of a rising trend channel established since March.

It is worth noting that the Australian dollar dropped to its lowest levels in three weeks on the previous day, mainly due to the broad strength of the US Dollar. However, the greenback's retreat ahead of significant events has prompted a rebound in the AUD/USD pair from the lower boundary of a bullish channel that has been in place for the past 2.5 months. The RSI (14) line being below the 50 level also supports the corrective bounce.

To reestablish control in favor of AUD/USD buyers, a clear upward breakthrough of the descending resistance line, currently around 0.6635, is necessary.

Even in that case, the weekly high around 0.6710 and the confluence of the 100-day Moving Average (DMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair's rally from October 2022 to February 2023, near 0.6785, could pose challenges for bullish momentum in the AUD/USD pair. Till we do not advise to buy AUD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - On the other hand, if the pair closes below the lower boundary of the aforementioned rising trend channel, near the psychological level of 0.6600, it may swiftly attract selling pressure from Aussie bears, potentially driving the pair towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around 0.6550. Till we do not advise to sell AUD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -