Published on Apr 19, 2023

Daily Analysis For AUD/USD 19-04-2023

AUD/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for AUD/USD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:00	(Japan) Reuters Tankan Index	Medium	JPY
02:00	(Australia) Westpac Leading Index MoM	Low	AUD
04:35	(Japan) 52-Week Bill Auction	Low	JPY
05:30	(Japan) Industrial Production MoM	Low	JPY
05:30	(Japan) Industrial Production YoY	Low	JPY
05:30	(Japan) Capacity Utilization MoM	Low	JPY
07:00	(European Union) New Car Registrations YoY	Medium	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Output YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Input MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Input YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Output MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Inflation Rate YoY	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Core Output MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Core Output YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Core Inflation Rate MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Price Index MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Price Index YoY	Low	GBP
08:00	(Austria) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) CPI	High	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) Current Account s.a	Low	EUR
10:00	(China) FDI (YTD) YoY	Medium	CNY
10:00	(Cyprus) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) CPI	High	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Current Account	Low	EUR
10:00	(Malta) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 10-Year Bund Auction	Medium	EUR
11:10	(European Union) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	EUR
11:10	(European Union) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	EUR
11:30	(Portugal) Current Account	Low	EUR
11:30	(United Kingdom) 5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction	Low	GBP
11:35	(Euro Area) ECB Lane Speech	Low	EUR
12:00	(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate	Medium	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Applications	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Market Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Purchase Index	Low	USD
13:15	(Canada) Housing Starts	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) PPI YoY	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) PPI MoM	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Raw Materials Prices YoY	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Raw Materials Prices MoM	Low	CAD
15:30	(United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Distillate Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Production Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Imports Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change	Low	USD
16:00	(Euro Area) ECB Schnabel Speech	Low	EUR
16:30	(United States) 17-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:00	(Canada) 5-Year Bond Auction	Low	CAD
18:00	(United States) 20-Year Bond Auction	Low	USD
19:00	(United States) Fed Beige Book	Low	USD
23:45	(New Zealand) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Inflation Rate QoQ	Medium	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) CPI	High	NZD

Today's Scenario: - The AUD/USD pair is struggling to maintain its recent gains, hovering around 0.6725-20 early on Wednesday in Asia. The market is looking for fresh signals to continue the previous day's positive performance, which was driven by the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, China's data dump, and weak US housing market statistics.

The RBA Minutes appeared to be slightly hawkish as the board considered a rate hike at the April meeting before ultimately deciding to hold rates steady.

Meanwhile, China's Q1 GDP grew 2.2% QoQ, beating expectations of 2.2%, and compared to 0.0% in the previous quarter. Additionally, Retail Sales grew 10.9% YoY in March, beating expectations of 7.4% and compared to 3.5% in the previous month. However, Industrial Production fell slightly below expected growth figures to 3.9%, compared to the previous reading of 2.4%. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also stated in its latest report that China is expected to be the top contributor to global growth over the next five years, with its share set to be double that of the US.

Buy Scenario: - The AUD/USD pair is currently showing an Inverted Flag chart pattern on the hourly scale, indicating a long period of consolidation followed by a potential breakdown. The consolidation phase of the pattern serves as an inventory adjustment where shorts are initiated, and current sellers add more positions. The asset price is overlapping the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6720, indicating a lack of momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is hovering in the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting an absence of a potential trigger.

If the pair breaks above the March 22 high at 0.6759, it may continue to rise towards the April 03 high at 0.6693, and then potentially to the February 06 low at 0.6855. Till we do not advise to buy AUD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - On the other hand, if there is a breakdown below the April 10 low at 0.6620, the AUD/USD may experience further weakness, with potential support levels at the March 10 low at 0.6564 and the round-level support at 0.6500. Till we do not advise to sell AUD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -