Published on Apr 18, 2023

Daily Analysis For AUD/USD 18-04-2023

AUD/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for AUD/USD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
01:00	(Cyprus) Orthodox Easter Tuesday	None	EUR
02:30	(Australia) RBA Meeting Minutes	High	AUD
03:00	(China) Industrial Capacity Utilization	Low	CNY
03:00	(China) Retail Sales YoY	High	CNY
03:00	(China) Industrial Production YoY	High	CNY
03:00	(China) Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY	Medium	CNY
03:00	(China) GDP Growth Rate YoY	High	CNY
03:00	(China) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Medium	CNY
03:00	(China) Unemployment Rate	High	CNY
07:00	(United Kingdom) Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr)	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr)	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Unemployment Rate	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Claimant Count Change	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Employment Change	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) HMRC Payrolls Change	Low	GBP
09:00	(Italy) Balance of Trade	Medium	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 3-Month Letras Auction	Low	EUR
10:00	(China) FDI (YTD) YoY	Medium	CNY
10:00	(Euro Area) ZEW Economic Sentiment Index	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Balance of Trade	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Germany) ZEW Current Conditions	Low	EUR
10:00	(Germany) ZEW Economic Sentiment Index	High	EUR
10:00	(United Kingdom) 30-Year Treasury Gilt Auction	Low	GBP
11:00	(Ireland) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
13:30	(Canada) New Motor Vehicle Sales	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Inflation Rate YoY	High	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Core Inflation Rate MoM	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) CPI Median YoY	High	CAD
13:30	(Canada) CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY	High	CAD
13:30	(United States) Housing Starts	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Building Permits	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Housing Starts MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Building Permits MoM	Medium	USD
13:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
14:00	(Ecuador) Balance of Trade	Low	USD
14:00	(Euro Area) ECB Elderson Speech	Low	EUR
16:00	(New Zealand) Global Dairy Trade Price Index	Low	NZD
16:30	(United States) 52-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Fed Bowman Speech	Medium	USD
21:30	(United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - After initially rising to 0.6720, AUD/USD has trimmed its gains and is currently trading around 0.6710. The strong growth data from China, along with the optimism brought by the RBA Minutes, has contributed to this.

China's Q1 GDP growth came in at 2.2% QoQ, surpassing the expected 2.2% and the previous 0.0%. Additionally, Retail Sales growth in March surged to 10.9% YoY, exceeding the expected 7.4% and the previous 3.5%. However, Industrial Production growth fell slightly below the expected 4.0%, coming in at 3.9% versus the previous reading of 2.4%.

Earlier today, the RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes were released, which contained a slightly hawkish tone. The board had reportedly considered a rate hike at the April meeting before ultimately deciding to pause.

Overall, the AUD/USD pair's movement is being influenced by strong economic data from China, as well as the RBA's outlook. Traders will be keeping a close eye on any further developments in these areas.

Buy Scenario: - To reach the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.6719 and Monday's high of $0.67192, the AUD/USD pair needs to surpass the $0.6700 pivot. A return to $0.6715 would indicate a bullish session, but it would require support from China's economic data and the RBA minutes.

If a breakout session occurs, the Aussie Dollar may test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.6738 and resistance at $0.6750. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) is at $0.6777. Till we do not advise to buy AUD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - On the Downside, if the pivot level is not breached, the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.6681 becomes relevant. In the absence of a risk-off sell-off, the AUD/USD pair should remain above $0.6650. The downside will be limited by the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.6662.

As always, traders will be monitoring economic data releases and central bank statements for clues about the pair's future direction. Till we do not advise to sell AUD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -