Daily Analysis For AUD/USD 16-05-2023

Daily Analysis For AUD/USD 16-05-2023

AUD/USD Analysis
AUD/USD
Economic Events and Scenario for AUD/USD
Economic Events : -
GMTEventImpactCurrency
01:30(Australia) Westpac Consumer Confidence IndexHighAUD
01:30(Australia) Westpac Consumer Confidence ChangeHighAUD
02:30(Australia) RBA Meeting MinutesHighAUD
03:00(China) Unemployment RateHighCNY
03:00(China) Retail Sales YoYHighCNY
03:00(China) Industrial Production YoYHighCNY
03:00(China) Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoYMediumCNY
06:00(Finland) GDP YoYLowEUR
06:00(Finland) GDP Growth Rate QoQLowEUR
06:00(Finland) GDP Growth Rate YoYLowEUR
07:00(United Kingdom) HMRC Payrolls ChangeLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr)LowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr)MediumGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Unemployment RateHighGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Claimant Count ChangeHighGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Employment ChangeHighGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Labour Productivity QoQLowGBP
08:00(China) FDI (YTD) YoYMediumCNY
08:00(Slovakia) GDP Growth Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(Slovakia) GDP Growth Rate QoQLowEUR
08:30(Netherlands) Household Consumption YoYLowEUR
08:30(Netherlands) GDP Growth Rate QoQMediumEUR
08:30(Netherlands) GDP Growth Rate YoYMediumEUR
08:30(Netherlands) Balance of TradeLowEUR
09:00(European Union) ECOFIN MeetingMediumEUR
09:00(France) IEA Oil Market ReportMediumEUR
09:00(Italy) Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
09:00(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
09:00(Italy) Inflation Rate YoYMediumEUR
09:00(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
09:00(Italy) CPIHighEUR
09:40(Spain) 3-Month Letras AuctionLowEUR
10:00(Cyprus) GDP Growth Rate YoYLowEUR
10:00(Cyprus) GDP Growth Rate QoQLowEUR
10:00(Euro Area) GDP Growth Rate YoYMediumEUR
10:00(Euro Area) GDP Growth Rate QoQMediumEUR
10:00(Euro Area) Employment Change QoQHighEUR
10:00(Euro Area) Employment Change YoYHighEUR
10:00(Euro Area) Balance of TradeMediumEUR
10:00(Euro Area) ZEW Economic Sentiment IndexMediumEUR
10:00(Germany) ZEW Current ConditionsLowEUR
10:00(Germany) ZEW Economic Sentiment IndexHighEUR
10:00(Montenegro) Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
10:00(Montenegro) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
10:00(Montenegro) Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
13:15(United States) Fed Mester SpeechMediumUSD
13:30(Canada) Manufacturing Sales MoMLowCAD
13:30(Canada) Core Inflation Rate MoMLowCAD
13:30(Canada) Core Inflation Rate YoYMediumCAD
13:30(Canada) Inflation Rate MoMMediumCAD
13:30(Canada) Inflation Rate YoYHighCAD
13:30(Canada) CPI Trimmed-Mean YoYHighCAD
13:30(Canada) CPI Median YoYHighCAD
13:30(United States) Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoMHighUSD
13:30(United States) Retail Sales YoYHighUSD
13:30(United States) Retail Sales Ex Autos MoMHighUSD
13:30(United States) Retail Sales MoMHighUSD
13:55(United States) Redbook YoYLowUSD
13:55(United States) Fed Bostic SpeechMediumUSD
14:15(United States) Manufacturing Production MoMLowUSD
14:15(United States) Industrial Production MoMMediumUSD
14:15(United States) Industrial Production YoYMediumUSD
14:15(United States) Manufacturing Production YoYLowUSD
14:15(United States) Capacity UtilizationLowUSD
14:45(Euro Area) ECB Tuominen SpeechLowEUR
15:00(United States) Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoMLowUSD
15:00(United States) Business Inventories MoMMediumUSD
15:00(United States) NAHB Housing Market IndexMediumUSD
15:00(United States) Fed Barr TestimonyMediumUSD
15:00(Euro Area) ECB President Lagarde SpeechMediumEUR
16:00(New Zealand) Global Dairy Trade Price IndexLowNZD
16:30(United States) 52-Week Bill AuctionLowUSD
17:15(United States) Fed Williams SpeechMediumUSD
20:15(United States) Fed Logan SpeechMediumUSD
21:30(United States) API Crude Oil Stock ChangeMediumUSD
Today's Scenario: - During the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes for the May monetary policy meeting, the AUD/USD pair experienced a decline below the significant support level of 0.6700. The RBA minutes revealed that the central bank had opted for a rate hike in response to an elevated inflation outlook. The minutes further indicated that additional rate hikes may be necessary due to inflation risks stemming from factors such as sluggish productivity growth, sustained high services inflation, and faster-than-expected rental price increases.
Buy Scenario: - If the AUD/USD pair manages to convincingly break above the round-level resistance at 0.6800, it would provide confidence to Australian Dollar bulls, potentially driving the asset higher towards the February 06 low at 0.6855, followed by the February 21 high at 0.6920. Till we do not advise to buy AUD/USD.
Sell Scenario: - On the other hand, if US Dollar bulls take control, a decline in the Aussie asset below the March 15 low at 0.6590 could lead to further downward movement. In such a scenario, the pair may encounter support levels at the March 08 low of 0.6568, followed by the November 02, 2022 high around 0.6500. Till we do not advise to sell AUD/USD.
Support and Resistance Level: -
SupportResistance
S1 0.6659-R1 0.6726
S2 0.6617-R2 0.6751
S3 0.6592-R3 0.6792

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