Published on May 15, 2023

Daily Analysis For AUD/USD 15-05-2023

AUD/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for AUD/USD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:50	(Japan) PPI YoY	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) PPI MoM	Low	JPY
01:00	(Euro Area) Eurogroup Meeting	Medium	EUR
01:01	(Ireland) Construction PMI	Low	EUR
02:30	(Australia) Building Permits MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Private House Approvals MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Building Permits YoY	Low	AUD
02:30	(China) PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement	Low	CNY
04:45	(Japan) 5-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
06:00	(Estonia) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) CPI	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Wholesale Prices MoM	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Wholesale Prices YoY	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Japan) Machine Tool Orders YoY	Low	JPY
07:30	(Switzerland) Producer & Import Prices YoY	Low	CHF
07:30	(Switzerland) Producer & Import Prices MoM	Low	CHF
08:00	(China) FDI (YTD) YoY	Medium	CNY
08:00	(Lithuania) Current Account	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Core Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) CPI	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:00	(Australia) Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment	Medium	AUD
09:00	(Switzerland) Myfxbook USDCHF Sentiment	Medium	CHF
09:00	(Japan) Myfxbook USDJPY Sentiment	Medium	JPY
09:00	(European Union) Myfxbook EURUSD Sentiment	Medium	EUR
09:00	(United Kingdom) Myfxbook GBPUSD Sentiment	Medium	GBP
09:00	(Canada) Myfxbook USDCAD Sentiment	Medium	CAD
09:00	(New Zealand) Myfxbook NZDUSD Sentiment	Medium	NZD
10:00	(Belgium) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 12-Month Bubill Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Spain) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Current Account	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
13:15	(Canada) Housing Starts	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Wholesale Sales MoM	Low	CAD
13:30	(United States) NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	Medium	USD
13:45	(United States) Fed Bostic Speech	Medium	USD
14:00	(Belgium) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 3-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 12-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 6-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:15	(United States) Fed Kashkari Speech	Medium	USD
15:00	(Canada) Financial System Survey	Medium	CAD
16:30	(United States) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:30	(United States) Fed Barkin Speech	Medium	USD
21:00	(United States) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	USD
21:00	(United States) Overall Net Capital Flows	Low	USD
21:00	(United States) Net Long-term TIC Flows	Medium	USD
22:00	(United States) Fed Cook Speech	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - During the early Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is attempting to maintain its position above the immediate support level of 0.6440. However, market sentiment suggests that the Australian dollar is likely to face continued downward pressure as investors anticipate further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed), despite a recent easing in US inflation.

Buy Scenario: - The AUD/USD pair has reached a new intraday high near 0.6665, bouncing back from a key short-term support level and posting its first daily gains in three sessions during early Monday trading. This recovery is supported by the RSI (14) line, which has moved up from oversold territory. Additionally, the bullish signals from the MACD indicator indicate a favorable outlook for the AUD/USD pair, which found support in a horizontal zone around 0.6640 that has been in place for the past two weeks.

However, there are some resistance levels to be aware of. Firstly, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair's upward movement from April 28 to May 10, located around 0.6670. Secondly, there is a downward-sloping resistance line from May 10, currently around 0.6680, which could impede a short-term rebound for the AUD/USD pair.

Even if the pair manages to surpass the 0.6680 level, further obstacles lie ahead. The 200-hour moving average (HMA) and a horizontal area that encompasses multiple levels since May 5, near 0.6750, may challenge buyers before allowing them to gain control. Till we do not advise to buy AUD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - On the downside, if the aforementioned horizontal support around 0.6640 is broken, the AUD/USD pair could face a test of the late April swing low around 0.6575. Furthermore, the yearly low recorded in March at approximately 0.6565 could act as an additional barrier in the southward direction.

Overall, while the AUD/USD pair is expected to sustain its recent recovery, there are limitations to the upside potential. Till we do not advise to sell AUD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -