Daily Analysis For AUD/USD 14-04-2023

Daily Analysis For AUD/USD 14-04-2023

AUD/USD Analysis
AUD/USD
Economic Events and Scenario for AUD/USD
Economic Events : -
GMTEventImpactCurrency
01:00(Cyprus) Good FridayNoneEUR
01:00(Greece) Orthodox Good FridayNoneEUR
01:00(Montenegro) Good FridayNoneEUR
04:35(Japan) 3-Month Bill AuctionLowJPY
06:00(Finland) Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
06:00(Finland) Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
06:00(Finland) GDP YoYLowEUR
06:00(Finland) CPILowEUR
07:00(Germany) Wholesale Prices YoYMediumEUR
07:00(Germany) Wholesale Prices MoMMediumEUR
07:30(Switzerland) Producer & Import Prices MoMLowCHF
07:30(Switzerland) Producer & Import Prices YoYLowCHF
07:45(France) Inflation Rate YoYMediumEUR
07:45(France) Inflation Rate MoMMediumEUR
07:45(France) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
07:45(France) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(China) FDI (YTD) YoYMediumCNY
08:00(Slovakia) CPILowEUR
08:00(Slovakia) Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
08:00(Slovakia) Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(Slovakia) Core Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
08:00(Slovakia) Core Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(Spain) CPIHighEUR
08:00(Spain) Core Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(Spain) Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
08:00(Spain) Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(Spain) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(Spain) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
09:00(France) IEA Oil Market ReportMediumEUR
10:30(Belgium) Construction Output YoYLowEUR
11:00(Ireland) Balance of TradeLowEUR
13:30(Canada) Manufacturing Sales MoMLowCAD
13:30(Canada) New Motor Vehicle SalesLowCAD
13:30(United States) Import Prices YoYLowUSD
13:30(United States) Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoMHighUSD
13:30(United States) Export Prices YoYLowUSD
13:30(United States) Import Prices MoMMediumUSD
13:30(United States) Export Prices MoMMediumUSD
13:30(United States) Retail Sales MoMHighUSD
13:30(United States) Retail Sales YoYHighUSD
13:30(United States) Retail Sales Ex Autos MoMHighUSD
13:45(United States) Fed Waller SpeechMediumUSD
14:15(United States) Manufacturing Production MoMLowUSD
14:15(United States) Capacity UtilizationLowUSD
14:15(United States) Manufacturing Production YoYLowUSD
14:15(United States) Industrial Production YoYMediumUSD
14:15(United States) Industrial Production MoMMediumUSD
15:00(United States) Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoMLowUSD
15:00(United States) Business Inventories MoMMediumUSD
15:00(United States) Michigan Inflation ExpectationsLowUSD
15:00(United States) Michigan Consumer SentimentHighUSD
15:00(United States) Michigan Consumer ExpectationsLowUSD
15:00(United States) Michigan Current ConditionsLowUSD
15:00(United States) Michigan 5 Year Inflation ExpectationsLowUSD
16:30(United Kingdom) BoE Tenreyro SpeechMediumGBP
18:00(El Salvador) Inflation Rate MoMLowUSD
18:00(El Salvador) Inflation Rate YoYLowUSD
18:00(United States) Baker Hughes Oil Rig CountLowUSD
18:00(United States) Baker Hughes Total Rig CountLowUSD
19:15(Germany) Bundesbank Nagel SpeechLowEUR
Today's Scenario: - The AUD/USD pair has been trading sideways below the key resistance level of 0.6800 during the Asian session following a strong rally. The lackluster performance of the Australian dollar is due to investors waiting for the release of US retail sales data. The recent rally in the Aussie asset was caused by a decrease in US consumer inflation expectations after a larger-than-expected slowdown in the US Producer Price Index (PPI) report.
S&P500 futures are showing little movement after a strong rally on Thursday, reflecting a subdued mood in the overall risk appetite theme. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has hit an 11-month low at 100.78 and is expected to continue its downward trend as the likelihood of the US economy entering a recession is high due to tight credit conditions imposed by US commercial banks following the recent banking crisis.
Buy Scenario: - The AUD/USD pair is trading at around 0.6780-90 during early Friday, holding onto mild gains at the highest level seen in seven weeks. The pair has been on a four-day winning streak, backed by bullish signals from the MACD indicator.
However, an upward-sloping resistance line from early March, located near the 0.6800 round figure, is currently preventing a further upward move for the AUD/USD pair. In addition, the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of around 0.6810 will also pose a crucial obstacle for Aussie buyers to overcome if they want to maintain control.
It is important to note that the RSI (14) line still has some room to move before it hits the overbought territory, indicating limited upside potential for the AUD/USD pair.
In the event that the pair manages to break above 0.6810, the 0.7000 round figure and a mid-February high of around 0.7030 will be key resistance levels to watch. Till we do not advise to buy AUD/USD.
Sell Scenario: - On the downside, the 100-EMA level of 0.6760 could serve as a support level for any pullback moves. A break below this level may lead to a test of the psychological magnet at 0.6700.
However, buyers of the Aussie pair can remain hopeful as long as the quote maintains a daily closing above a five-week-old ascending support line, currently located near 0.66303. Till we do not advise to sell AUD/USD.
Support and Resistance Level: -
SupportResistance
S1 0.6711-R1 0.6823
S2 0.6643-R2 0.6865
S3 0.6600-R3 0.6934

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