Published on May 12, 2023

Daily Analysis For AUD/USD 12-05-2023

AUD/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for AUD/USD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
04:00	(New Zealand) Business Inflation Expectations	Low	NZD
04:35	(Japan) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	JPY
06:00	(Finland) Current Account	Low	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) GDP YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance Non-EU	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Industrial Production YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Manufacturing Production MoM	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Manufacturing Production YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Construction Output YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Balance of Trade	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) GDP Growth Rate YoY	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Business Investment QoQ	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Business Investment YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) GDP MoM	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) GDP 3-Month Avg	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Construction Orders YoY	Low	GBP
07:45	(France) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
07:45	(France) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
07:45	(France) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(China) FDI (YTD) YoY	Medium	CNY
08:00	(Spain) CPI	High	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(United States) Fed Bowman Speech	Medium	USD
09:00	(Euro Area) ECB Guindos Speech	High	EUR
10:00	(China) Current Account	Medium	CNY
11:00	(Spain) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Current Account	Low	EUR
12:15	(United Kingdom) BoE Pill Speech	Medium	GBP
13:00	(United Kingdom) NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	Low	GBP
13:30	(United States) Export Prices YoY	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Import Prices YoY	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Import Prices MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Export Prices MoM	Medium	USD
13:45	(Germany) Current Account	Low	EUR
14:00	(Ecuador) Balance of Trade	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Consumer Sentiment	High	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Inflation Expectations	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Consumer Expectations	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Current Conditions	Low	USD
15:30	(Canada) Senior Loan Officer Survey	Medium	CAD
17:00	(United States) WASDE Report	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - AUD/USD remains defensive near the weekly low around 0.6700, displaying a recent retreat as market sentiment remains uncertain leading into the European session on Friday.

Despite the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) recent hawkish expectations, the beginning of trade talks between Australia and China, and hopes of a "V-shaped" rebound in Chinese inflation, the Australian pair fails to gather significant momentum. This could be attributed to the US Dollar's ability to benefit from sour market sentiment and hawkish speculation regarding the Federal Reserve's actions ahead of the release of inflation indicators.

The positive surplus news from the Australian Federal Budget, which was announced on Tuesday, prompted Goldman Sachs to express optimistic expectations regarding the RBA's future actions. Goldman Sachs forecasts another rate hike by the RBA in July and suggests that there may be further increases beyond that due to the potential rise in inflation.

Buy Scenario: - To target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at 0.6769, the AUD/USD pair needs to surpass the pivot level at 0.6729. A rebound from Thursday's low would be confirmed by a return to 0.6750. However, for a breakout to occur, the Australian Dollar would require support from economic indicators in Australia as well as political developments in the United States.

If a breakout occurs, the next level of resistance to watch for would be around 0.68, but the pair is likely to fall short of reaching the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at 0.6836. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) is situated at 0.6877. Till we do not advise to buy AUD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - On the downside, if the pair fails to move beyond the pivot level, the First Major Support Level (S1) at 0.6662 comes into play. Unless there is a significant risk-off sentiment triggering a sell-off, it is expected that the AUD/USD pair will avoid dropping below the sub-0.6650 mark, which coincides with the Second Major Support Level (S2) at 0.6622.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) can be found at 0.6514. Till we do not advise to sell AUD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -