Daily Analysis For AUD/USD  12-05-2023

Daily Analysis For AUD/USD 12-05-2023

AUD/USD Analysis
Economic Events and Scenario for AUD/USD
Economic Events : -
04:00(New Zealand) Business Inflation ExpectationsLowNZD
04:35(Japan) 3-Month Bill AuctionLowJPY
06:00(Finland) Current AccountLowEUR
07:00(United Kingdom) Goods Trade BalanceHighGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) GDP YoYLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance Non-EUHighGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Industrial Production MoMMediumGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Industrial Production YoYLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Manufacturing Production MoMMediumGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Manufacturing Production YoYLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Construction Output YoYLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Balance of TradeLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) GDP Growth Rate YoYHighGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) GDP Growth Rate QoQHighGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Business Investment QoQMediumGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Business Investment YoYLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) GDP MoMHighGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) GDP 3-Month AvgMediumGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Construction Orders YoYLowGBP
07:45(France) Inflation Rate YoYMediumEUR
07:45(France) Inflation Rate MoMMediumEUR
07:45(France) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
07:45(France) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(China) FDI (YTD) YoYMediumCNY
08:00(Spain) CPIHighEUR
08:00(Spain) Core Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(Spain) Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(Spain) Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
08:00(Spain) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(Spain) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
08:00(United States) Fed Bowman SpeechMediumUSD
09:00(Euro Area) ECB Guindos SpeechHighEUR
10:00(China) Current AccountMediumCNY
11:00(Spain) Consumer ConfidenceMediumEUR
11:00(Latvia) Current AccountLowEUR
12:15(United Kingdom) BoE Pill SpeechMediumGBP
13:00(United Kingdom) NIESR Monthly GDP TrackerLowGBP
13:30(United States) Export Prices YoYLowUSD
13:30(United States) Import Prices YoYLowUSD
13:30(United States) Import Prices MoMMediumUSD
13:30(United States) Export Prices MoMMediumUSD
13:45(Germany) Current AccountLowEUR
14:00(Ecuador) Balance of TradeLowUSD
15:00(United States) Michigan Consumer SentimentHighUSD
15:00(United States) Michigan Inflation ExpectationsLowUSD
15:00(United States) Michigan Consumer ExpectationsLowUSD
15:00(United States) Michigan 5 Year Inflation ExpectationsLowUSD
15:00(United States) Michigan Current ConditionsLowUSD
15:30(Canada) Senior Loan Officer SurveyMediumCAD
17:00(United States) WASDE ReportLowUSD
18:00(United States) Baker Hughes Oil Rig CountLowUSD
18:00(United States) Baker Hughes Total Rig CountLowUSD

Today's Scenario: - AUD/USD remains defensive near the weekly low around 0.6700, displaying a recent retreat as market sentiment remains uncertain leading into the European session on Friday.
Despite the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) recent hawkish expectations, the beginning of trade talks between Australia and China, and hopes of a "V-shaped" rebound in Chinese inflation, the Australian pair fails to gather significant momentum. This could be attributed to the US Dollar's ability to benefit from sour market sentiment and hawkish speculation regarding the Federal Reserve's actions ahead of the release of inflation indicators.
The positive surplus news from the Australian Federal Budget, which was announced on Tuesday, prompted Goldman Sachs to express optimistic expectations regarding the RBA's future actions. Goldman Sachs forecasts another rate hike by the RBA in July and suggests that there may be further increases beyond that due to the potential rise in inflation.

Buy Scenario: - To target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at 0.6769, the AUD/USD pair needs to surpass the pivot level at 0.6729. A rebound from Thursday's low would be confirmed by a return to 0.6750. However, for a breakout to occur, the Australian Dollar would require support from economic indicators in Australia as well as political developments in the United States.
If a breakout occurs, the next level of resistance to watch for would be around 0.68, but the pair is likely to fall short of reaching the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at 0.6836. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) is situated at 0.6877. Till we do not advise to buy AUD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - On the downside, if the pair fails to move beyond the pivot level, the First Major Support Level (S1) at 0.6662 comes into play. Unless there is a significant risk-off sentiment triggering a sell-off, it is expected that the AUD/USD pair will avoid dropping below the sub-0.6650 mark, which coincides with the Second Major Support Level (S2) at 0.6622.
The Third Major Support Level (S3) can be found at 0.6514. Till we do not advise to sell AUD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -
S1 0.6662-R1 0.6769
S2 0.6622-R2 0.6836
S3 0.6555-R3 0.6877


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