Published on May 10, 2023

Daily Analysis For AUD/USD 10-05-2023

AUD/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for AUD/USD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:50	(Japan) Foreign Exchange Reserves	Low	JPY
01:00	(El Salvador) Mothers' Day	None	USD
05:30	(Netherlands) Manufacturing Production MoM	Low	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Japan) Coincident Index	Low	JPY
06:00	(Japan) Leading Economic Index	Low	JPY
07:00	(Germany) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Germany) CPI	High	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Belgium) Industrial Production MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Belgium) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
10:00	(Greece) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Greece) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Greece) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Greece) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Malta) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
10:00	(United Kingdom) 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction	Low	GBP
10:10	(Italy) 12-Month BOT Auction	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 30-Year Bund Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Spain) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
12:00	(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate	Medium	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Applications	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Market Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Purchase Index	Low	USD
13:30	(Canada) Building Permits MoM	Low	CAD
13:30	(United States) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Core Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Inflation Rate YoY	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Core Inflation Rate YoY	High	USD
13:30	(United States) CPI	High	USD
13:30	(United States) CPI s.a	High	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Distillate Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Production Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Imports Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 17-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:00	(Canada) 2-Year Bond Auction	Low	CAD
18:00	(United States) 10-Year Note Auction	Low	USD
19:00	(United States) Monthly Budget Statement	Medium	USD
23:45	(New Zealand) Food Inflation YoY	Low	NZD

Today's Scenario: - AUD/USD is currently hovering around its intraday high, moving between 0.6770-60. The pair is facing the pressure of the cautious market sentiment and recent weaker-than-expected Australian economic data. The market's risk appetite remains low due to the failed debt ceiling talks in the White House, as well as concerns of potential fallout in the US banking sector. Additionally, market participants are preparing for the release of the US inflation data, specifically the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April.

Buy Scenario: - AUD/USD is currently trading around 0.6770-60, and it appears to be moving within Wyckoff's Accumulation phase, which is a process of transferring inventory from retail investors to institutional investors. If the pair breaks out of this phase, it may result in a bullish trend with heavy volume.

The 10-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is currently acting as support for the bulls, with a value of 0.6721. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is also trying to move into the 60.00-80.00 range, which would signal an upside momentum.

If the pair manages to break the resistance level of 0.6800, it could confidently drive the price higher towards the February 06 low at 0.6855, followed by the February 21 high at 0.6920. Till we do not advise to buy AUD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - On the other hand, if the US Dollar strengthens, it could drive the AUD/USD pair lower. A drop below the March 15 low at 0.6590 could expose the pair to the March 08 low at 0.6568, followed by the November 02, 2022 high around 0.6500. Till we do not advise to sell AUD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -