Daily Analysis For AUD/USD  09-05-2023

Daily Analysis For AUD/USD 09-05-2023

AUD/USD Analysis
Economic Events and Scenario for AUD/USD
Economic Events : -
00:01(United Kingdom) BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoYHighGBP
00:30(Japan) Overtime Pay YoYLowJPY
00:30(Japan) Average Cash Earnings YoYLowJPY
00:30(Japan) Household Spending MoMLowJPY
00:30(Japan) Household Spending YoYLowJPY
01:00(Euro Area) Anniversary of Robert Schumans DeclarationNoneEUR
01:00(Luxembourg) Europe DayNoneEUR
02:30(Australia) Retail Sales MoMHighAUD
04:00(China) Exports YoYMediumCNY
04:00(China) Imports YoYMediumCNY
04:00(China) Balance of TradeHighCNY
04:35(Japan) 10-Year JGB AuctionLowJPY
04:35(Japan) 6-Month Bill AuctionLowJPY
07:00(Lithuania) CPILowEUR
07:00(Lithuania) Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
07:00(Lithuania) Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
07:00(United Kingdom) Halifax House Price Index YoYMediumGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Halifax House Price Index MoMMediumGBP
07:45(France) Current AccountLowEUR
07:45(France) Balance of TradeMediumEUR
07:45(France) ExportsLowEUR
07:45(France) ImportsLowEUR
08:00(Slovakia) Balance of TradeLowEUR
08:30(France) Foreign Exchange ReservesLowEUR
09:00(Euro Area) ECB Lane SpeechLowEUR
09:40(Spain) 6-Month Letras AuctionLowEUR
09:40(Spain) 12-Month Letras AuctionLowEUR
10:30(Germany) 5-Year Bobl AuctionLowEUR
10:30(Australia) 2023-24 Federal BudgetMediumAUD
11:00(United Kingdom) BBA Mortgage RateLowGBP
11:00(Ireland) Industrial Production YoYLowEUR
11:00(United States) NFIB Business Optimism IndexLowUSD
13:30(United States) Fed Jefferson SpeechMediumUSD
13:55(United States) Redbook YoYLowUSD
14:00(France) 3-Month BTF AuctionLowEUR
14:00(France) 12-Month BTF AuctionLowEUR
14:00(France) 6-Month BTF AuctionLowEUR
15:00(United States) IBD/TIPP Economic OptimismMediumUSD
15:30(United States) NY Fed Treasury Purchases 0 to 1 yrsLowUSD
17:05(United States) Fed Williams SpeechMediumUSD
18:00(United States) 3-Year Note AuctionLowUSD
18:00(Euro Area) ECB Schnabel SpeechLowEUR
21:30(United States) API Crude Oil Stock ChangeMediumUSD

Today's Scenario: - The AUD/USD pair is trading lower near 0.6775 on early Tuesday, experiencing its first daily loss in seven days. The downward trend is attributed to the mostly negative China trade figures for April, as well as softer Aussie Retail Sales numbers, which have led to a negative market sentiment. Although China's Trade Balance rose to $90.21B in April versus $71.6B expected and $88.19B prior, the CNY figures eased to 618.44B compared to 637.16B market forecasts and 601.01B prior. It is important to note that both Exports and Imports declined in the USD and CNY terms for the month of April.

Buy Scenario: - This morning, the AUD/USD is up 0.03% at 0.67809, following a mixed start to the day that saw the pair drop to an early low of 0.67769 before rising to a high of 0.67826.
On the 4-hour chart, the EMAs are sending bullish signals, with the AUD/USD trading above the 50-day EMA, which is currently at 0.67010. The 50-day EMA has pulled away from the 100-day EMA, which is widening from the 200-day EMA, indicating a bullish bias. Till we do not advise to buy AUD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - To support a breakout towards R2 at 0.6840, the AUD/USD needs to hold above the Major Support Levels and the 50-day EMA. However, a decline below S1 at 0.6749 could lead to S2 at 0.6712 and the 50-day EMA at 0.6685 coming into view. A drop below the 50-day EMA would be a bearish signal. Till we do not advise to sell AUD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -
S1 0.6749-R1 0.6812
S2 0.6712-R2 0.6840
S3 0.6685-R3 0.6876


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