Published on May 9, 2023

Daily Analysis For AUD/USD 09-05-2023

AUD/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for AUD/USD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:01	(United Kingdom) BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY	High	GBP
00:30	(Japan) Overtime Pay YoY	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Average Cash Earnings YoY	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Household Spending MoM	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Household Spending YoY	Low	JPY
01:00	(Euro Area) Anniversary of Robert Schumans Declaration	None	EUR
01:00	(Luxembourg) Europe Day	None	EUR
02:30	(Australia) Retail Sales MoM	High	AUD
04:00	(China) Exports YoY	Medium	CNY
04:00	(China) Imports YoY	Medium	CNY
04:00	(China) Balance of Trade	High	CNY
04:35	(Japan) 10-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
04:35	(Japan) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	JPY
07:00	(Lithuania) CPI	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) Halifax House Price Index YoY	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Halifax House Price Index MoM	Medium	GBP
07:45	(France) Current Account	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Balance of Trade	Medium	EUR
07:45	(France) Exports	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Imports	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
08:30	(France) Foreign Exchange Reserves	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) ECB Lane Speech	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 6-Month Letras Auction	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 12-Month Letras Auction	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 5-Year Bobl Auction	Low	EUR
10:30	(Australia) 2023-24 Federal Budget	Medium	AUD
11:00	(United Kingdom) BBA Mortgage Rate	Low	GBP
11:00	(Ireland) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(United States) NFIB Business Optimism Index	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Fed Jefferson Speech	Medium	USD
13:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
14:00	(France) 3-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 12-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 6-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
15:00	(United States) IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) NY Fed Treasury Purchases 0 to 1 yrs	Low	USD
17:05	(United States) Fed Williams Speech	Medium	USD
18:00	(United States) 3-Year Note Auction	Low	USD
18:00	(Euro Area) ECB Schnabel Speech	Low	EUR
21:30	(United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - The AUD/USD pair is trading lower near 0.6775 on early Tuesday, experiencing its first daily loss in seven days. The downward trend is attributed to the mostly negative China trade figures for April, as well as softer Aussie Retail Sales numbers, which have led to a negative market sentiment. Although China's Trade Balance rose to $90.21B in April versus $71.6B expected and $88.19B prior, the CNY figures eased to 618.44B compared to 637.16B market forecasts and 601.01B prior. It is important to note that both Exports and Imports declined in the USD and CNY terms for the month of April.

Buy Scenario: - This morning, the AUD/USD is up 0.03% at 0.67809, following a mixed start to the day that saw the pair drop to an early low of 0.67769 before rising to a high of 0.67826.

On the 4-hour chart, the EMAs are sending bullish signals, with the AUD/USD trading above the 50-day EMA, which is currently at 0.67010. The 50-day EMA has pulled away from the 100-day EMA, which is widening from the 200-day EMA, indicating a bullish bias. Till we do not advise to buy AUD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - To support a breakout towards R2 at 0.6840, the AUD/USD needs to hold above the Major Support Levels and the 50-day EMA. However, a decline below S1 at 0.6749 could lead to S2 at 0.6712 and the 50-day EMA at 0.6685 coming into view. A drop below the 50-day EMA would be a bearish signal. Till we do not advise to sell AUD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -