Daily Analysis For AUD/USD  04-05-2023

Daily Analysis For AUD/USD 04-05-2023

AUD/USD Analysis
AUD/USD
Economic Events and Scenario for AUD/USD
Economic Events : -
GMTEventImpactCurrency
01:00(Japan) Greenery DayNoneJPY
01:00(Latvia) Declaration of Independence DayNoneEUR
01:01(Ireland) AIB Services PMILowEUR
02:30(Australia) Exports MoMLowAUD
02:30(Australia) Imports MoMLowAUD
02:30(Australia) Balance of TradeHighAUD
02:45(China) Caixin Manufacturing PMIHighCNY
06:00(Estonia) Industrial Production MoMLowEUR
06:00(Estonia) Industrial Production YoYLowEUR
07:00(Germany) Balance of TradeHighEUR
07:00(Germany) Exports MoMMediumEUR
07:00(Germany) Imports MoMLowEUR
08:00(Spain) Unemployment ChangeHighEUR
08:00(Spain) Tourist Arrivals YoYLowEUR
08:15(Spain) S&P Global Services PMIHighEUR
08:15(Spain) S&P Global Composite PMILowEUR
08:45(Italy) S&P Global Services PMIHighEUR
08:45(Italy) S&P Global Composite PMILowEUR
08:50(France) S&P Global Services PMIMediumEUR
08:50(France) S&P Global Composite PMILowEUR
08:55(Germany) S&P Global Services PMIHighEUR
08:55(Germany) S&P Global Composite PMILowEUR
09:00(Euro Area) S&P Global Composite PMILowEUR
09:00(Euro Area) S&P Global Services PMIHighEUR
09:00(United Kingdom) New Car Sales YoYLowGBP
09:30(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMIHighGBP
09:30(United Kingdom) Net Lending to Individuals MoMLowGBP
09:30(United Kingdom) Mortgage ApprovalsMediumGBP
09:30(United Kingdom) Mortgage LendingMediumGBP
09:30(United Kingdom) BoE Consumer CreditMediumGBP
09:30(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMILowGBP
09:40(Spain) Index-Linked Obligacion AuctionLowEUR
09:40(Spain) Obligacion AuctionLowEUR
09:40(Spain) Bonos AuctionLowEUR
09:40(Spain) 3-Year Bonos AuctionLowEUR
10:00(France) New Car Registrations YoYLowEUR
10:00(Cyprus) Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
10:00(Cyprus) Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
10:00(Euro Area) PPI MoMLowEUR
10:00(Euro Area) PPI YoYLowEUR
10:00(France) 10-Year OAT AuctionLowEUR
11:00(Ireland) Unemployment RateLowEUR
12:30(Germany) New Car Registrations YoYLowEUR
12:30(United States) Challenger Job CutsLowUSD
13:15(Euro Area) Marginal Lending RateLowEUR
13:15(Euro Area) Deposit Facility RateHighEUR
13:15(Euro Area) ECB Interest Rate DecisionHighEUR
13:30(Canada) ImportsLowCAD
13:30(Canada) ExportsLowCAD
13:30(Canada) Balance of TradeHighCAD
13:30(United States) Unit Labour Costs QoQMediumUSD
13:30(United States) Nonfarm Productivity QoQMediumUSD
13:30(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week AverageHighUSD
13:30(United States) Continuing Jobless ClaimsHighUSD
13:30(United States) Initial Jobless ClaimsHighUSD
13:30(United States) Balance of TradeHighUSD
13:30(United States) ExportsMediumUSD
13:30(United States) ImportsMediumUSD
13:45(Euro Area) ECB Press ConferenceHighEUR
15:00(Canada) Ivey PMI s.aHighCAD
15:30(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) NY Fed Treasury Purchases TIPS 1 to 7.5 yrsLowUSD
16:30(United States) 8-Week Bill AuctionLowUSD
16:30(United States) 4-Week Bill AuctionLowUSD

Today's Scenario: - The AUD/USD pair made a swift ascent above 0.6670 following the release of upbeat Australian Trade Balance data. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a Trade Balance data of 15,269M, surpassing the estimates of 12,650M and the previous release of 13,870M.
On the other hand, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI (April) data failed to meet expectations. The economic data was recorded at 49.5, falling short of the estimates of 50.3 and the previous release of 50.0. Despite receiving fiscal and monetary support, the Chinese economy is struggling to maintain its progress.

Buy Scenario: - The AUD/USD pair has managed to clear the hurdle of the 21-day moving average and is now finding immediate support around the 0.6675 level. The current upward momentum is also supported by the upcoming bullish cross on the MACD and a stronger RSI (14) line, which is hovering near the 50 level.
However, for the market to gain confidence in marking another attempt to breach the 100-day moving average hurdle of around 0.6790, the AUD/USD pair needs to provide a daily closing above a downward-sloping resistance line from February 14, near 0.6710. Till we do not advise to buy AUD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - In case of a surprise pullback in the AUD/USD price, the pair could aim for the 0.6630 level before testing the round figure of 0.6600. Subsequently, the bears would need to break below a horizontal support area comprising multiple levels marked since November 2022, around 0.6565-75, to maintain control. Till we do not advise to sell AUD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -
SupportResistance
S1 0.6645-R1 0.6699
S2 0.6620-R2 0.6728
S3 0.6591-R3 0.6753

Discussion

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