Daily Analysis For AUD/USD 03-05-2023

Daily Analysis For AUD/USD 03-05-2023

AUD/USD Analysis
Description
Economic Events and Scenario for AUD/USD
Economic Events : -
GMTEventImpactCurrency
00:00(Australia) Ai Group Industry IndexMediumAUD
00:00(Australia) Judo Bank Services PMIHighAUD
00:00(Australia) Judo Bank Composite PMILowAUD
00:00(Australia) Ai Group Construction IndexLowAUD
00:00(Australia) Ai Group Manufacturing IndexLowAUD
01:00(China) May DayNoneCNY
01:00(Japan) Constitution Memorial DayNoneJPY
02:30(Australia) Retail Sales MoMHighAUD
02:30(Australia) RBA Chart PackLowAUD
07:45(France) Budget BalanceLowEUR
09:00(Italy) Unemployment RateHighEUR
10:00(Cyprus) Unemployment RateLowEUR
10:00(Euro Area) Unemployment RateHighEUR
10:00(France) New Car Registrations YoYLowEUR
10:00(United Kingdom) 2-Year Treasury Gilt AuctionLowGBP
10:30(Germany) 7-Year Bund AuctionLowEUR
11:00(Belgium) New Car Registrations YoYLowEUR
11:00(Portugal) Industrial Production YoYLowEUR
11:00(Portugal) Industrial Production MoMLowEUR
11:10(European Union) 6-Month Bill AuctionLowEUR
11:10(European Union) 3-Month Bill AuctionLowEUR
11:30(Portugal) Budget BalanceLowEUR
12:00(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage RateMediumUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Mortgage ApplicationsLowUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance IndexLowUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Mortgage Market IndexLowUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Purchase IndexLowUSD
12:30(Germany) New Car Registrations YoYLowEUR
13:15(United States) ADP Employment ChangeHighUSD
14:30(United States) Treasury Refunding AnnouncementLowUSD
14:45(United States) S&P Global Composite PMIMediumUSD
14:45(United States) S&P Global Services PMIHighUSD
15:00(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing PricesLowUSD
15:00(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing New OrdersLowUSD
15:00(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing EmploymentMediumUSD
15:00(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMIHighUSD
15:00(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing Business ActivityLowUSD
15:00(United States) Total Vehicle SalesLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks ChangeMediumUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Distillate Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Gasoline Production ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Crude Oil Imports ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Gasoline Stocks ChangeMediumUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Distillate Fuel Production ChangeLowUSD
16:30(United States) 17-Week Bill AuctionLowUSD
19:00(United States) Fed Interest Rate DecisionHighUSD
19:30(United States) Fed Press ConferenceHighUSD
23:45(New Zealand) Building Permits MoMLowNZD
Today's Scenario: - The AUD/USD pair has remained range-bound between 0.6660-0.6670 despite positive retail sales data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The data showed that monthly retail sales increased by 0.4%, higher than the consensus and the previous release of 0.2%. The strong retail sales figure indicates that consumer spending remains resilient, which supports the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to hike interest rates further.
On Tuesday, the RBA surprised the market by raising its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.85%, despite expectations for a continuation of neutral policy due to declining inflationary pressures. The RBA's decision was based on the belief that the current monetary policy is not restrictive enough to achieve price stability.
Investors will now focus on the upcoming Australian Trade Balance data for March, which is expected to show a decline of 12,750M from the previous release of 13,870M. A weaker-than-expected Trade Balance figure could have a negative impact on the Australian Dollar.
Buy Scenario: - The AUD/USD pair will need to stay above the pivot point at $0.6667 to target the first major resistance level at $0.6713, followed by the Tuesday high of $0.6717. A return to the $0.67 level would indicate a bullish session. However, for this to happen, the Australian Dollar would require support from a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia and strong retail sales figures before the US session begins.
If a breakout does occur, the AUD/USD pair could test resistance at $0.6713 but might not reach the second major resistance level at $0.6764. The third major resistance level (R3) sits at $0.6810. Till we do not advise to buy AUD/USD.
Sell Scenario: - On the other hand, if the pair falls below the pivot point, the first major support level (S1) at $0.6617 will come into play. However, unless there is a sell-off fueled by the Reserve Bank of Australia, the AUD/USD pair is likely to avoid falling below $0.66 and the second major support level (S2) at $0.6570.
The third major support level (S3) sits at $0.6520 Till we do not advise to sell AUD/USD.
Support and Resistance Level: -
SupportResistance
S1 0.6617-R1 0.6713
S2 0.6570-R2 0.6764
S3 0.6520-R3 0.6810

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