Published on May 2, 2023

Daily Analysis For AUD/USD 02-05-2023

AUD/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for AUD/USD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
01:00	(China) May Day	None	CNY
01:00	(Montenegro) Labor day	None	EUR
01:01	(Ireland) AIB Manufacturing PMI	Low	EUR
04:35	(Japan) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	JPY
05:30	(Australia) RBA Interest Rate Decision	High	AUD
05:30	(Netherlands) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
05:30	(Netherlands) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
06:00	(Netherlands) NEVI Manufacturing PMI	Low	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) Nationwide Housing Prices YoY	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Nationwide Housing Prices MoM	Medium	GBP
07:00	(Germany) Retail Sales MoM	High	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Retail Sales YoY	High	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Switzerland) Consumer Confidence	High	CHF
08:15	(Spain) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
08:30	(Austria) Unemployment Rate	High	EUR
08:30	(Austria) Unemployed Persons	Low	EUR
08:30	(Switzerland) procure.ch Manufacturing PMI	High	CHF
08:45	(Italy) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
08:50	(France) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	Medium	EUR
08:55	(Germany) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) Loans to Households YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) M3 Money Supply YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) Loans to Companies YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Greece) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI	High	GBP
09:30	(United States) LMI Logistics Managers Index Current	Low	USD
10:00	(Cyprus) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Inflation Rate YoY	High	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) CPI	High	EUR
10:00	(Italy) CPI	High	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Inflation Rate YoY	High	EUR
10:30	(Germany) Index-Linked Bund Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Spain) New Car Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Greece) Total Credit YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Italy) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Italy) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
13:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
14:00	(France) 3-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 12-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 6-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
15:00	(United States) JOLTs Job Quits	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) JOLTs Job Openings	High	USD
15:00	(United States) Factory Orders ex Transportation	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Factory Orders MoM	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Total Vehicle Sales	Low	USD
16:00	(New Zealand) Global Dairy Trade Price Index	Low	NZD
17:00	(Belgium) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
17:00	(Italy) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
21:30	(United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	USD
22:00	(New Zealand) RBNZ Financial Stability Report	Medium	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Participation Rate	Low	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Labour Costs Index YoY	Low	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Labour Costs Index QoQ	Low	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Employment Change QoQ	High	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Unemployment Rate	High	NZD

Today's Scenario: - The AUD/USD pair has experienced a rapid increase above 0.6680, following a surprise 25 basis points (bps) interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to 3.85%. The market had expected the RBA to maintain its current interest rate policy. Governor Philip Lowe's decision to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3.85% comes despite a consistent decline in the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) since December, which dropped from a peak of 8.4% to 6.3% in March. The RBA expects further decreases in inflationary pressures due to an anticipated slowdown in the Australian economy.

Buy Scenario: - To reach the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.6664 and Monday's high at $0.66682, the AUD/USD pair needs to surpass the pivot level of $0.6635. A bullish session could be confirmed by a return to $0.6650, but a hawkish RBA is required to support a breakout before the US session.

In the case of a breakout, the AUD/USD may target the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.6697, followed by resistance at $0.67, and the Third Major Resistance Level (R3) at $0.6760. Till we do not advise to buy AUD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - On the downside, if the pivot level is not surpassed, the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.6601 may come into play. However, unless there is a sell-off driven by the RBA, the AUD/USD pair is expected to avoid testing the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.6572. The Third Major Support Level (S3) is situated at $0.6509. Till we do not advise to sell AUD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -