Daily Analysis For AUD/USD  02-05-2023

Daily Analysis For AUD/USD 02-05-2023

AUD/USD Analysis
Economic Events and Scenario for AUD/USD
Economic Events : -
01:00(China) May DayNoneCNY
01:00(Montenegro) Labor dayNoneEUR
01:01(Ireland) AIB Manufacturing PMILowEUR
04:35(Japan) 3-Month Bill AuctionLowJPY
05:30(Australia) RBA Interest Rate DecisionHighAUD
05:30(Netherlands) Inflation Rate YoYMediumEUR
05:30(Netherlands) Business ConfidenceLowEUR
06:00(Netherlands) NEVI Manufacturing PMILowEUR
07:00(United Kingdom) Nationwide Housing Prices YoYMediumGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Nationwide Housing Prices MoMMediumGBP
07:00(Germany) Retail Sales MoMHighEUR
07:00(Germany) Retail Sales YoYHighEUR
07:00(Lithuania) GDP Growth Rate YoYLowEUR
07:00(Lithuania) GDP Growth Rate QoQLowEUR
08:00(Austria) Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(Austria) Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
08:00(Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
08:00(Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(Switzerland) Consumer ConfidenceHighCHF
08:15(Spain) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIHighEUR
08:30(Austria) Unemployment RateHighEUR
08:30(Austria) Unemployed PersonsLowEUR
08:30(Switzerland) procure.ch Manufacturing PMIHighCHF
08:45(Italy) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIHighEUR
08:50(France) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIMediumEUR
08:55(Germany) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIHighEUR
09:00(Euro Area) Loans to Households YoYLowEUR
09:00(Euro Area) M3 Money Supply YoYLowEUR
09:00(Euro Area) Loans to Companies YoYLowEUR
09:00(Euro Area) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIHighEUR
09:00(Greece) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIHighEUR
09:30(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMIHighGBP
09:30(United States) LMI Logistics Managers Index CurrentLowUSD
10:00(Cyprus) Retail Sales YoYLowEUR
10:00(Euro Area) Core Inflation Rate YoYMediumEUR
10:00(Euro Area) Inflation Rate YoYHighEUR
10:00(Euro Area) Inflation Rate MoMMediumEUR
10:00(Euro Area) CPIHighEUR
10:00(Italy) CPIHighEUR
10:00(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
10:00(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
10:00(Italy) Inflation Rate MoMMediumEUR
10:00(Italy) Inflation Rate YoYHighEUR
10:30(Germany) Index-Linked Bund AuctionLowEUR
11:00(Portugal) Retail Sales YoYLowEUR
11:00(Portugal) Retail Sales MoMLowEUR
11:00(Spain) New Car Sales YoYLowEUR
11:00(Greece) Total Credit YoYLowEUR
11:00(Italy) PPI MoMLowEUR
11:00(Italy) PPI YoYLowEUR
13:55(United States) Redbook YoYLowUSD
14:00(France) 3-Month BTF AuctionLowEUR
14:00(France) 12-Month BTF AuctionLowEUR
14:00(France) 6-Month BTF AuctionLowEUR
15:00(United States) JOLTs Job QuitsLowUSD
15:00(United States) JOLTs Job OpeningsHighUSD
15:00(United States) Factory Orders ex TransportationLowUSD
15:00(United States) Factory Orders MoMMediumUSD
15:00(United States) Total Vehicle SalesLowUSD
16:00(New Zealand) Global Dairy Trade Price IndexLowNZD
17:00(Belgium) New Car Registrations YoYLowEUR
17:00(Italy) New Car Registrations YoYLowEUR
21:30(United States) API Crude Oil Stock ChangeMediumUSD
22:00(New Zealand) RBNZ Financial Stability ReportMediumNZD
23:45(New Zealand) Participation RateLowNZD
23:45(New Zealand) Labour Costs Index YoYLowNZD
23:45(New Zealand) Labour Costs Index QoQLowNZD
23:45(New Zealand) Employment Change QoQHighNZD
23:45(New Zealand) Unemployment RateHighNZD

Today's Scenario: - The AUD/USD pair has experienced a rapid increase above 0.6680, following a surprise 25 basis points (bps) interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to 3.85%. The market had expected the RBA to maintain its current interest rate policy. Governor Philip Lowe's decision to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3.85% comes despite a consistent decline in the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) since December, which dropped from a peak of 8.4% to 6.3% in March. The RBA expects further decreases in inflationary pressures due to an anticipated slowdown in the Australian economy.

Buy Scenario: - To reach the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.6664 and Monday's high at $0.66682, the AUD/USD pair needs to surpass the pivot level of $0.6635. A bullish session could be confirmed by a return to $0.6650, but a hawkish RBA is required to support a breakout before the US session.
In the case of a breakout, the AUD/USD may target the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.6697, followed by resistance at $0.67, and the Third Major Resistance Level (R3) at $0.6760. Till we do not advise to buy AUD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - On the downside, if the pivot level is not surpassed, the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.6601 may come into play. However, unless there is a sell-off driven by the RBA, the AUD/USD pair is expected to avoid testing the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.6572. The Third Major Support Level (S3) is situated at $0.6509. Till we do not advise to sell AUD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -
S1 0.6603-R1 0.6663
S2 0.6575-R2 0.6696
S3 0.6542-R3 0.6724


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