Published on May 16, 2023

Daily Analysis For US Doller Index 16-05-2023

US Doller Index Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for US Doller Index

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
01:30	(Australia) Westpac Consumer Confidence Index	High	AUD
01:30	(Australia) Westpac Consumer Confidence Change	High	AUD
02:30	(Australia) RBA Meeting Minutes	High	AUD
03:00	(China) Unemployment Rate	High	CNY
03:00	(China) Retail Sales YoY	High	CNY
03:00	(China) Industrial Production YoY	High	CNY
03:00	(China) Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY	Medium	CNY
06:00	(Finland) GDP YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) HMRC Payrolls Change	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr)	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr)	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Unemployment Rate	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Claimant Count Change	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Employment Change	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Labour Productivity QoQ	Low	GBP
08:00	(China) FDI (YTD) YoY	Medium	CNY
08:00	(Slovakia) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Low	EUR
08:30	(Netherlands) Household Consumption YoY	Low	EUR
08:30	(Netherlands) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Medium	EUR
08:30	(Netherlands) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
08:30	(Netherlands) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
09:00	(European Union) ECOFIN Meeting	Medium	EUR
09:00	(France) IEA Oil Market Report	Medium	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) CPI	High	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 3-Month Letras Auction	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Employment Change QoQ	High	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Employment Change YoY	High	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Balance of Trade	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) ZEW Economic Sentiment Index	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Germany) ZEW Current Conditions	Low	EUR
10:00	(Germany) ZEW Economic Sentiment Index	High	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
13:15	(United States) Fed Mester Speech	Medium	USD
13:30	(Canada) Manufacturing Sales MoM	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Core Inflation Rate MoM	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Inflation Rate YoY	High	CAD
13:30	(Canada) CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY	High	CAD
13:30	(Canada) CPI Median YoY	High	CAD
13:30	(United States) Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Retail Sales YoY	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Retail Sales MoM	High	USD
13:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
13:55	(United States) Fed Bostic Speech	Medium	USD
14:15	(United States) Manufacturing Production MoM	Low	USD
14:15	(United States) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	USD
14:15	(United States) Industrial Production YoY	Medium	USD
14:15	(United States) Manufacturing Production YoY	Low	USD
14:15	(United States) Capacity Utilization	Low	USD
14:45	(Euro Area) ECB Tuominen Speech	Low	EUR
15:00	(United States) Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Business Inventories MoM	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) NAHB Housing Market Index	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Fed Barr Testimony	Medium	USD
15:00	(Euro Area) ECB President Lagarde Speech	Medium	EUR
16:00	(New Zealand) Global Dairy Trade Price Index	Low	NZD
16:30	(United States) 52-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:15	(United States) Fed Williams Speech	Medium	USD
20:15	(United States) Fed Logan Speech	Medium	USD
21:30	(United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - On Monday, the US dollar saw a significant increase in value against other major currencies, reaching its highest level in five weeks. This rise was driven by concerns surrounding inflation in the US and global economic growth.

The dollar had already experienced notable gains throughout the previous week, and its upward trend continued, surpassing levels not seen since April 10. Although it slightly retraced later in the day, it remains relatively strong.

In the past week alone, the dollar has gained 1.4%. Traders believe that the currency is currently undervalued and anticipate that the dollar index, which measures its value against other major currencies, will reach 104 by the end of June.

As of 05:51 GMT, June U.S. Dollar Index futures are trading at 102.430, showing a decline of 0.079 or -0.08%. This is a slight drop from the intraday high of 102.585. On Friday, the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund ETF (UUP) closed at $28.10, marking an increase of $0.18 or +0.63%.

Buy Scenario: - The US Dollar Index (DXY) reached fresh monthly highs near 102.80 on Monday but quickly retraced its gains. For the bullish momentum to continue, the index would need to surpass the previous weekly high at 102.80, which was recorded on April 10. If this level is breached, it could potentially pave the way for a visit to the April high at 103.05, which was reached on April 3. Till we do not advise to buy US Dollar Index.

Sell Scenario: - On the downside, there is currently strong support around the 101.00 level, acting as a significant barrier.

Taking a broader perspective, as long as the index remains below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is currently positioned at 105.83, the overall outlook for the index is expected to remain negative. Till we do not advise to sell in US Dollar Index

Support and Resistance Level: -